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Final 5-6
Progressive Field
CHC
Chicago Cubs
Shota Imanaga
5
@
CLE
Cleveland Guardians
Parker Messick
6
2026-04-04 · 23:15 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 2 models agree (away)
run line
All 2 models agree (away)
over under
All 2 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -13.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Slade Cecconi's shaky career numbers (5.07 ERA) face a Cubs offense averaging 5 runs per game, making Chicago the slight edge despite playing on the road."
run line
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: +0.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Slade Cecconi's shaky career numbers (5.07 ERA) face a Cubs offense averaging 5 runs per game, making Chicago the slight edge despite playing on the road."
over under
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Slade Cecconi's shaky career numbers (5.07 ERA) face a Cubs offense averaging 5 runs per game, making Chicago the slight edge despite playing on the road."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
47%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CHC
Edge: -4.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
39%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CHC +1.5
Edge: -4.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
32%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -135 | +115 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +125 (+1.5) | -150 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | -108 | -102 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -102/U -118) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | +128 (+1.5) | -148 (-1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -143 | +117 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.0 (O -107/U -117) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | +117 (+1.5) | -148 (-1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | -131 | +119 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.0 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| BetUS | run line | +130 (+1.5) | -150 (-1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -133 | +111 | |
| Bovada | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Bovada | run line | +130 (+1.5) | -150 (-1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -115 | -105 | |
| Caesars | over under | 7.5 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| Caesars | run line | +122 (+1.5) | -145 (-1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -115 | -105 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 7.5 (O 102/U -122) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +123 (+1.5) | -149 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -134 | +114 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +128 (+1.5) | -154 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -140 | +115 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +125 (+1.5) | -150 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | -108 | -102 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 7.5 (O 101/U -116) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | +130 (+1.5) | -147 (-1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -135 | +114 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -116) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +121 (+1.5) | -147 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.