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Live 1-4
Busch Stadium
CLE
Cleveland Guardians
Slade Cecconi
1
@
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
Dustin May
4
2026-04-15 · 17:15 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 3 models agree (away)
run line
2 of 3 agree (away)
over under
All 3 models agree (over)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -11.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
"Dustin May's catastrophic 15.95 ERA and 2.73 WHIP in 2026 makes him an extreme liability, giving Cleveland a significant edge in this matchup despite Cecconi's own struggles."
run line
37%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -2.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
"Dustin May's catastrophic 15.95 ERA and 2.73 WHIP in 2026 makes him an extreme liability, giving Cleveland a significant edge in this matchup despite Cecconi's own struggles."
over under
41%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
"Dustin May's catastrophic 15.95 ERA and 2.73 WHIP in 2026 makes him an extreme liability, giving Cleveland a significant edge in this matchup despite Cecconi's own struggles."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
35%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -16.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
"Dustin May's alarming 15.95 ERA this season makes CLE's offense a betting advantage despite Cleveland's overall offensive struggles."
run line
30%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -9.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
"Dustin May's alarming 15.95 ERA this season makes CLE's offense a betting advantage despite Cleveland's overall offensive struggles."
over under
29%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
"Dustin May's alarming 15.95 ERA this season makes CLE's offense a betting advantage despite Cleveland's overall offensive struggles."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CLE
Edge: -7.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
run line
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
STL -1.5
Edge: -27.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
over under
48%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -110 | -110 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 9.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +150 (+1.5) | -185 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | -106 | -104 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 9.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -220 (-1.5) | +186 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -106 | -118 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 9.0 (O -114/U -109) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | +160 (+1.5) | -200 (-1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | -106 | -104 | |
| BetUS | over under | 9.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -220 (-1.5) | +188 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -109 | -111 | |
| Bovada | over under | 9.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -225 (-1.5) | +185 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -110 | -110 | |
| Caesars | over under | 9.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -220 (-1.5) | +180 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -110 | -110 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 9.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +138 (+1.5) | -167 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -104 | -112 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 9.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +155 (+1.5) | -188 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -110 | -110 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 9.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +150 (+1.5) | -180 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | -106 | -104 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 9.0 (O -113/U -102) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -218 (-1.5) | +189 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -108 | -109 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 9.0 (O -115/U -106) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +138 (+1.5) | -172 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.