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Final 8-3
Citizens Bank Park
TEX
Texas Rangers
MacKenzie Gore
8
@
PHI
Philadelphia Phillies
Jesús Luzardo
3
2026-03-29 · 17:35 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 2 models agree (home)
run line
1 of 2 agree (away)
over under
All 2 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
58%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -3.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Jesús Luzardo's superior command (career 3.07 BB/9 vs Gore's 3.77) gives Philadelphia a meaningful pitching edge at home, making the Phillies the clear favorite in a low-scoring affair."
run line
62%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: +1.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Jesús Luzardo's superior command (career 3.07 BB/9 vs Gore's 3.77) gives Philadelphia a meaningful pitching edge at home, making the Phillies the clear favorite in a low-scoring affair."
over under
54%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.0
Edge: +4.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Jesús Luzardo's superior command (career 3.07 BB/9 vs Gore's 3.77) gives Philadelphia a meaningful pitching edge at home, making the Phillies the clear favorite in a low-scoring affair."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
63%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PHI
Edge: +1.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
79%
HIGH
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PHI -1.5
Edge: +35.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
61%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Edge: +11.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +140 | -165 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.0 (O -102/U -118) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -165 (-1.5) | +140 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +140 | -155 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -104/U -116) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -154 (-1.5) | +134 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +128 | -162 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 7.5 (O -121/U -104) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -180 (-1.5) | +143 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +141 | -158 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -150 (-1.5) | +130 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +139 | -165 | |
| Bovada | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -160 (-1.5) | +135 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +140 | -165 | |
| Caesars | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -155 (-1.5) | +130 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +139 | -168 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -156 (-1.5) | +129 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +134 | -158 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 7.5 (O -122/U 100) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -156 (-1.5) | +130 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +135 | -165 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -155 (-1.5) | +130 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +140 | -155 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -101/U -114) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -153 (-1.5) | +135 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +136 | -161 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -104/U -116) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -156 (-1.5) | +127 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.