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Final 5-0
PNC Park
SDP
San Diego Padres
Germán Márquez
5
@
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Bubba Chandler
0
2026-04-06 · 22:40 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 2 models agree (home)
run line
All 2 models agree (home)
over under
1 of 2 agree (over)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
43%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -14.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Pittsburgh's significant offensive advantage (4.62 R/G vs 3.0 R/G) combined with their undefeated home record makes them clear favorites at PNC Park."
run line
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -1.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Pittsburgh's significant offensive advantage (4.62 R/G vs 3.0 R/G) combined with their undefeated home record makes them clear favorites at PNC Park."
over under
34%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Pittsburgh's significant offensive advantage (4.62 R/G vs 3.0 R/G) combined with their undefeated home record makes them clear favorites at PNC Park."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
52%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PIT
Edge: -5.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
32%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PIT -1.5
Edge: -7.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
36%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +115 | -135 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +155 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +134 | -148 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 7.0 (O 115/U -135) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -175 (-1.5) | +153 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +112 | -139 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.5 (O -117/U -107) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -195 (-1.5) | +155 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +123 | -136 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -175 (-1.5) | +152 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +115 | -138 | |
| Bovada | over under | 8.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -180 (-1.5) | +155 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +130 | -155 | |
| Caesars | over under | 6.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +158 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +129 | -156 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 6.5 (O -112/U -108) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -186 (-1.5) | +153 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +122 | -144 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 6.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -200 (-1.5) | +164 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +115 | -140 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -180 (-1.5) | +150 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +134 | -148 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 7.0 (O 117/U -134) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -175 (-1.5) | +154 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +119 | -139 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -112/U -109) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -178 (-1.5) | +144 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.