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Final 2-3
PNC Park
BAL
Baltimore Orioles
Shane Baz
2
@
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Carmen Mlodzinski
3
2026-04-04 · 20:05 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 2 models agree (home)
run line
All 2 models agree (home)
over under
All 2 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -13.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Carmen Mlodzinski's superior career ERA (3.25) compared to Shane Baz (4.25) gives Pittsburgh a meaningful pitching edge in this evenly matched contest."
run line
32%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -32.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Carmen Mlodzinski's superior career ERA (3.25) compared to Shane Baz (4.25) gives Pittsburgh a meaningful pitching edge in this evenly matched contest."
over under
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Carmen Mlodzinski's superior career ERA (3.25) compared to Shane Baz (4.25) gives Pittsburgh a meaningful pitching edge in this evenly matched contest."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PIT
Edge: -13.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PIT -1.5
Edge: -22.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
41%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 9.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -170 | +135 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 5.5 (O -145/U 110) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +185 (+1.5) | -235 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +110 | -121 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -210 (-1.5) | +180 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -230 | +163 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 6.0 (O -112/U -127) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -130 (+1.0) | -105 (-1.0) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +109 | -120 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -210 (-1.5) | +180 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -175 | +135 | |
| Bovada | over under | 6.0 (O -120/U -110) | ||
| Bovada | run line | +100 (+1.0) | -130 (-1.0) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +105 | -125 | |
| Caesars | over under | 8.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Caesars | run line | +145 (+1.5) | -180 (-1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +104 | -126 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 8.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +128 (+1.5) | -168 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +102 | -120 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.5 (O 100/U -122) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +152 (+1.5) | -184 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +105 | -125 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +155 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +110 | -121 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -102/U -113) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -209 (-1.5) | +182 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -200 | +160 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 6.0 (O -111/U -125) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +145 (+1.5) | -200 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.