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Final 6-2 Tropicana Field
CHC
Chicago Cubs
Colin Rea
6
@
TBR
Tampa Bay Rays
Joe Boyle
2
2026-04-08 · 22:40 UTC

Predictions

Cross-Model Agreement

moneyline All 3 models agree (home)
run line All 3 models agree (home)
over under 2 of 3 agree (over)
AI Baseline (Sonnet) LLM
moneyline 38% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -14.4% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Tampa Bay's significant offensive advantage (.265 BA, 5.0 R/G vs Chicago's .206 BA, 4.11 R/G) at their emotionally charged home opener at Tropicana Field gives them the edge, though Joe Boyle's historically shaky control (5.42 career BB/9) is a concern."

run line 27% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -38.3% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Tampa Bay's significant offensive advantage (.265 BA, 5.0 R/G vs Chicago's .206 BA, 4.11 R/G) at their emotionally charged home opener at Tropicana Field gives them the edge, though Joe Boyle's historically shaky control (5.42 career BB/9) is a concern."

over under 48% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"Tampa Bay's significant offensive advantage (.265 BA, 5.0 R/G vs Chicago's .206 BA, 4.11 R/G) at their emotionally charged home opener at Tropicana Field gives them the edge, though Joe Boyle's historically shaky control (5.42 career BB/9) is a concern."

Haiku Current Series Record LLM
moneyline 42% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -10.4% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Tampa Bay's significantly superior batting metrics and current series advantage, combined with Joe Boyle's strong early-season performance, give the Rays a clear home edge over a struggling Cubs offense."

run line 42% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -23.3% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Tampa Bay's significantly superior batting metrics and current series advantage, combined with Joe Boyle's strong early-season performance, give the Rays a clear home edge over a struggling Cubs offense."

over under 44% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Tampa Bay's significantly superior batting metrics and current series advantage, combined with Joe Boyle's strong early-season performance, give the Rays a clear home edge over a struggling Cubs offense."

ML Baseline ML
moneyline 49% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
TBR
Edge: -3.4% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST
run line 33% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
TBR -1.5
Edge: -32.3% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST
over under 49% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 9.0
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

Odds Comparison
Sportsbook Type Away Home Total
BetMGM moneyline +100 -110
BetMGM over under 8.0 (O -120/U 100)
BetMGM run line +150 (+1.5) -180 (-1.5)
BetOnline.ag moneyline -101 -109
BetOnline.ag over under 8.0 (O -116/U -104)
BetOnline.ag run line +165 (+1.5) -190 (-1.5)
BetRivers moneyline -105 -120
BetRivers over under 8.0 (O -113/U -110)
BetRivers run line +163 (+1.5) -210 (-1.5)
BetUS moneyline +101 -111
BetUS over under 8.0 (O -115/U -105)
BetUS run line +164 (+1.5) -190 (-1.5)
Bovada moneyline -104 -116
Bovada over under 8.5 (O 100/U -120)
Bovada run line -220 (-1.5) +180 (+1.5)
Caesars moneyline -105 -115
Caesars over under 8.0 (O -120/U 100)
Caesars run line +158 (+1.5) -190 (-1.5)
DraftKings moneyline -108 -112
DraftKings over under 8.0 (O -118/U -102)
DraftKings run line +159 (+1.5) -193 (-1.5)
FanDuel moneyline -106 -110
FanDuel over under 8.5 (O 100/U -122)
FanDuel run line +155 (+1.5) -188 (-1.5)
Fanatics moneyline -105 -115
Fanatics over under 8.5 (O 100/U -120)
Fanatics run line +160 (+1.5) -195 (-1.5)
LowVig.ag moneyline +101 -111
LowVig.ag over under 8.0 (O -114/U -101)
LowVig.ag run line +166 (+1.5) -190 (-1.5)
MyBookie.ag moneyline -106 -110
MyBookie.ag over under 8.0 (O -119/U -102)
MyBookie.ag run line +149 (+1.5) -185 (-1.5)

Team Stats

Stats not yet available.