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Final 2-10
Progressive Field
KCR
Kansas City Royals
Cole Ragans
2
@
CLE
Cleveland Guardians
Joey Cantillo
10
2026-04-08 · 17:10 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 3 models agree (home)
run line
2 of 3 agree (home)
over under
2 of 3 agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -2.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Cole Ragans' severe early-season control issues (9.0 BB/9) make him a liability, but Cleveland's poor offense (.198 BA, 3.2 R/G) limits how much damage they can capitalize on."
run line
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -4.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Cole Ragans' severe early-season control issues (9.0 BB/9) make him a liability, but Cleveland's poor offense (.198 BA, 3.2 R/G) limits how much damage they can capitalize on."
over under
51%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Cole Ragans' severe early-season control issues (9.0 BB/9) make him a liability, but Cleveland's poor offense (.198 BA, 3.2 R/G) limits how much damage they can capitalize on."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
49%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: +2.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Cole Ragans' significant 2026 performance decline (9.0 ERA vs 3.71 career) against a strong CLE pitching staff at home is the primary driver for the Cleveland advantage."
run line
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -18.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Cole Ragans' significant 2026 performance decline (9.0 ERA vs 3.71 career) against a strong CLE pitching staff at home is the primary driver for the Cleveland advantage."
over under
65%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Cole Ragans' significant 2026 performance decline (9.0 ERA vs 3.71 career) against a strong CLE pitching staff at home is the primary driver for the Cleveland advantage."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
46%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CLE
Edge: -0.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
41%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CLE -1.5
Edge: -21.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
over under
56%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -125 | +105 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 7.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +145 (+1.5) | -175 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | -130 | +118 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 7.0 (O -103/U -117) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | +140 (+1.5) | -160 (-1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -136 | +110 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 7.0 (O -114/U -109) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | +130 (+1.5) | -162 (-1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | -127 | +116 | |
| BetUS | over under | 7.0 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| BetUS | run line | +144 (+1.5) | -165 (-1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -136 | +114 | |
| Bovada | over under | 7.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Bovada | run line | +135 (+1.5) | -160 (-1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -135 | +115 | |
| Caesars | over under | 7.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Caesars | run line | +140 (+1.5) | -165 (-1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -136 | +113 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 7.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +135 (+1.5) | -163 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -134 | +114 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 7.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +138 (+1.5) | -166 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -140 | +115 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 7.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +135 (+1.5) | -165 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | -130 | +118 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 7.0 (O 100/U -115) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | +141 (+1.5) | -160 (-1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -132 | +112 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 7.0 (O -106/U -115) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +136 (+1.5) | -170 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.