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Final 3-2
Fenway Park
SDP
San Diego Padres
Randy Vásquez
3
@
BOS
Boston Red Sox
Connelly Early
2
2026-04-04 · 20:10 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
1 of 2 agree (away)
run line
1 of 2 agree (away)
over under
1 of 2 agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -30.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"BOS's 1-5 record, injury concerns (Casas, Sandoval), and weak offense make them vulnerable at home against a more stable SDP squad despite Fenway Park advantage."
run line
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: +2.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"BOS's 1-5 record, injury concerns (Casas, Sandoval), and weak offense make them vulnerable at home against a more stable SDP squad despite Fenway Park advantage."
over under
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"BOS's 1-5 record, injury concerns (Casas, Sandoval), and weak offense make them vulnerable at home against a more stable SDP squad despite Fenway Park advantage."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
51%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
BOS
Edge: +13.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
BOS -1.5
Edge: -23.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
60%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 6.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -190 | +150 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 5.5 (O -120/U -105) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +160 (+1.5) | -210 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +139 | -153 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 9.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -164 (-1.5) | +144 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -200 | +143 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 5.5 (O -130/U -108) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -105 (+1.0) | -132 (-1.0) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +138 | -155 | |
| BetUS | over under | 9.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -165 (-1.5) | +144 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -205 | +155 | |
| Bovada | over under | 6.0 (O -115/U -115) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -120 (+1.0) | -110 (-1.0) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +135 | -160 | |
| Caesars | over under | 9.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Caesars | run line | +150 (+1.5) | -190 (-1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +129 | -156 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 9.0 (O -108/U -112) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +168 (+1.5) | -225 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +122 | -144 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 9.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -160 (-1.5) | +132 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -200 | +150 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 5.5 (O -120/U -110) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +170 (+1.5) | -230 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +139 | -153 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 9.0 (O -102/U -113) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -164 (-1.5) | +145 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -222 | +165 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 6.0 (O -118/U -111) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +135 (+1.5) | -182 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.