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Final 4-5 Tropicana Field
NYY
New York Yankees
Max Fried
4
@
TBR
Tampa Bay Rays
Nick Martinez
5
2026-04-11 · 22:10 UTC

Predictions

Cross-Model Agreement

moneyline All 3 models agree (away)
run line All 3 models agree (away)
over under 2 of 3 agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet) LLM
moneyline 47% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -16.2% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Max Fried's exceptional 2026 season (0.00 ERA, 0.53 WHIP) against a struggling Rays offense and unproven Nick Martinez is the dominant factor in this matchup."

run line 26% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY -1.5
Edge: -24.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Max Fried's exceptional 2026 season (0.00 ERA, 0.53 WHIP) against a struggling Rays offense and unproven Nick Martinez is the dominant factor in this matchup."

over under 37% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.0
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Max Fried's exceptional 2026 season (0.00 ERA, 0.53 WHIP) against a struggling Rays offense and unproven Nick Martinez is the dominant factor in this matchup."

Haiku Current Series Record LLM
moneyline 41% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -22.2% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Max Fried's exceptional 0.0 ERA and elite peripherals (0.53 WHIP) against Nick Martinez's pedestrian 3.0 ERA provides dominant pitching advantage for the visiting Yankees in a weak Rays home environment."

run line 30% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -20.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Max Fried's exceptional 0.0 ERA and elite peripherals (0.53 WHIP) against Nick Martinez's pedestrian 3.0 ERA provides dominant pitching advantage for the visiting Yankees in a weak Rays home environment."

over under 59% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Max Fried's exceptional 0.0 ERA and elite peripherals (0.53 WHIP) against Nick Martinez's pedestrian 3.0 ERA provides dominant pitching advantage for the visiting Yankees in a weak Rays home environment."

ML Baseline ML
moneyline 49% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
NYY
Edge: -14.2% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST
run line 44% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
NYY +1.5
Edge: -6.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST
over under 50% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 9.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

Odds Comparison
Sportsbook Type Away Home Total
BetMGM moneyline -175 +145
BetMGM over under 8.0 (O 100/U -120)
BetMGM run line -102 (+1.5) -118 (-1.5)
BetOnline.ag moneyline -168 +152
BetOnline.ag over under 7.5 (O -116/U -104)
BetOnline.ag run line -106 (+1.5) -114 (-1.5)
BetRivers moneyline -200 +160
BetRivers over under 8.0 (O -108/U -115)
BetRivers run line -114 (+1.5) -108 (-1.5)
BetUS moneyline -167 +148
BetUS over under 7.5 (O -120/U 100)
BetUS run line -105 (+1.5) -115 (-1.5)
Bovada moneyline -174 +143
Bovada over under 7.5 (O -120/U 100)
Bovada run line -105 (+1.5) -115 (-1.5)
Caesars moneyline -170 +143
Caesars over under 7.5 (O -120/U 100)
Caesars run line +100 (+1.5) -120 (-1.5)
DraftKings moneyline -143 +119
DraftKings over under 7.5 (O -112/U -108)
DraftKings run line +102 (+1.5) -122 (-1.5)
FanDuel moneyline -172 +144
FanDuel over under 7.5 (O -118/U -104)
FanDuel run line +100 (+1.5) -120 (-1.5)
Fanatics moneyline -145 +120
Fanatics over under 7.5 (O -110/U -110)
Fanatics run line +115 (+1.5) -140 (-1.5)
LowVig.ag moneyline -168 +152
LowVig.ag over under 7.5 (O -114/U -101)
LowVig.ag run line -103 (+1.5) -111 (-1.5)
MyBookie.ag moneyline -169 +143
MyBookie.ag over under 7.5 (O -119/U -102)
MyBookie.ag run line -102 (+1.5) -119 (-1.5)

Team Stats

Stats not yet available.