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Final 2-5
Petco Park
COL
Colorado Rockies
Tomoyuki Sugano
2
@
SDP
San Diego Padres
Walker Buehler
5
2026-04-11 · 01:40 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
2 of 3 agree (away)
run line
2 of 3 agree (away)
over under
All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
37%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -26.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Petco Park's pitcher-friendly environment combined with Sugano's strong early-season form and San Diego's solid pitching staff should keep this a low-scoring, competitive game."
run line
22%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -22.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Petco Park's pitcher-friendly environment combined with Sugano's strong early-season form and San Diego's solid pitching staff should keep this a low-scoring, competitive game."
over under
51%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Petco Park's pitcher-friendly environment combined with Sugano's strong early-season form and San Diego's solid pitching staff should keep this a low-scoring, competitive game."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -2.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Tomoyuki Sugano's elite 2026 performance (1.69 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) provides dominant pitching that should suppress scoring and favor Colorado despite poor road record."
run line
54%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -4.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Tomoyuki Sugano's elite 2026 performance (1.69 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) provides dominant pitching that should suppress scoring and favor Colorado despite poor road record."
over under
64%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Tomoyuki Sugano's elite 2026 performance (1.69 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) provides dominant pitching that should suppress scoring and favor Colorado despite poor road record."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
COL
Edge: +3.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
37%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
COL +1.5
Edge: -21.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +145 | -175 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.0 (O -118/U -102) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -145 (-1.5) | +120 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +145 | -160 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -145 (-1.5) | +125 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +155 | -200 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.5 (O -107/U -117) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -143 (-1.5) | +115 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +148 | -167 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -145 (-1.5) | +125 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +142 | -172 | |
| Bovada | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -160 (-1.5) | +135 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +140 | -165 | |
| Caesars | over under | 8.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -150 (-1.5) | +126 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +141 | -171 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 8.5 (O -108/U -112) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -149 (-1.5) | +123 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +146 | -174 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -154 (-1.5) | +128 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +140 | -170 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -130 (-1.5) | +110 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +145 | -160 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -102/U -113) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -143 (-1.5) | +127 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +148 | -175 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -114/U -108) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -145 (-1.5) | +119 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.