Back to Schedule
Final 2-4
Target Field
DET
Detroit Tigers
Tarik Skubal
2
@
MIN
Minnesota Twins
Taj Bradley
4
2026-04-07 · 23:40 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 3 models agree (away)
run line
All 3 models agree (away)
over under
All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -20.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Tarik Skubal's historically dominant early-season performance (0.69 ERA, zero walks) against a Minnesota lineup batting .192 with the highest strikeout rate in the matchup is the decisive edge."
run line
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -5.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Tarik Skubal's historically dominant early-season performance (0.69 ERA, zero walks) against a Minnesota lineup batting .192 with the highest strikeout rate in the matchup is the decisive edge."
over under
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 6.5
Edge: -10.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Tarik Skubal's historically dominant early-season performance (0.69 ERA, zero walks) against a Minnesota lineup batting .192 with the highest strikeout rate in the matchup is the decisive edge."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
49%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -13.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Tarik Skubal's dominant pitching performance with elite ERA and perfect control gives Detroit a significant advantage against Minnesota's anemic offense."
run line
39%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -8.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Tarik Skubal's dominant pitching performance with elite ERA and perfect control gives Detroit a significant advantage against Minnesota's anemic offense."
over under
68%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 6.5
Edge: +18.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Tarik Skubal's dominant pitching performance with elite ERA and perfect control gives Detroit a significant advantage against Minnesota's anemic offense."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
45%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
DET
Edge: -17.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
53%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
DET +1.5
Edge: +6.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
48%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 9.0
Edge: -2.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -170 | +140 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 6.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +850 (-3.5) | -2000 (+3.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | -150 | +136 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | +110 (+1.5) | -130 (-1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -162 | +130 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 6.5 (O -125/U 102) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | +112 (+1.5) | -139 (-1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | -162 | +144 | |
| BetUS | over under | 6.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetUS | run line | +110 (+1.5) | -130 (-1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -165 | +139 | |
| Bovada | over under | 6.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Bovada | run line | +115 (+1.5) | -135 (-1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -155 | +130 | |
| Caesars | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Caesars | run line | +110 (+1.5) | -130 (-1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -156 | +129 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 8.0 (O -112/U -108) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +109 (+1.5) | -131 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -154 | +130 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +112 (+1.5) | -134 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -170 | +140 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 6.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +110 (+1.5) | -130 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | -150 | +136 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -118/U 103) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | +113 (+1.5) | -128 (-1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -169 | +143 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 6.5 (O -120/U -102) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +107 (+1.5) | -132 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.