Back to Schedule
Final 7-2
Citi Field
ARI
Arizona Diamondbacks
Ryne Nelson
7
@
NYM
New York Mets
David Peterson
2
2026-04-08 · 20:10 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 3 models agree (home)
run line
All 3 models agree (home)
over under
All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
46%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: +34.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"The Mets' dominant pitching staff (2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) combined with Arizona's struggling road offense (0-3, .638 OPS) gives New York a clear edge at Citi Field."
run line
28%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -19.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"The Mets' dominant pitching staff (2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) combined with Arizona's struggling road offense (0-3, .638 OPS) gives New York a clear edge at Citi Field."
over under
51%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"The Mets' dominant pitching staff (2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) combined with Arizona's struggling road offense (0-3, .638 OPS) gives New York a clear edge at Citi Field."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
49%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: +37.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"NYM's dominant pitching staff and superior offensive metrics, combined with ARI's 0-3 road record, create a significant home advantage."
run line
39%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -8.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"NYM's dominant pitching staff and superior offensive metrics, combined with ARI's 0-3 road record, create a significant home advantage."
over under
68%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"NYM's dominant pitching staff and superior offensive metrics, combined with ARI's 0-3 road record, create a significant home advantage."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
43%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
NYM
Edge: +31.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
NYM -1.5
Edge: -9.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
56%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +135 | -160 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 7.5 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -160 (-1.5) | +135 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +140 | -155 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 7.5 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -180 (-1.5) | +157 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +120 | -152 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.0 (O -121/U -117) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -105 (+4.0) | -132 (-4.0) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +117 | -128 | |
| BetUS | over under | 7.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -180 (-1.5) | +156 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -1800 | +800 | |
| Bovada | over under | 8.5 (O -120/U -110) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -145 (+3.5) | +110 (-3.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +135 | -160 | |
| Caesars | over under | 7.5 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -160 (-1.5) | +135 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +139 | -168 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 7.0 (O -124/U 103) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -163 (-1.5) | +135 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +136 | -162 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 7.5 (O 100/U -122) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -162 (-1.5) | +134 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +135 | -165 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 7.5 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -155 (-1.5) | +130 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +140 | -155 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 7.5 (O 103/U -118) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -180 (-1.5) | +158 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -1000 | +575 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 9.0 (O -118/U -118) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -111 (+3.5) | -125 (-3.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.