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Final 2-6
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
SFG
San Francisco Giants
Logan Webb
2
@
BAL
Baltimore Orioles
Chris Bassitt
6
2026-04-11 · 23:15 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
2 of 3 agree (away)
run line
2 of 3 agree (home)
over under
All 3 models agree (over)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -16.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Chris Bassitt's historically poor command (8.78 BB/9) this season is the biggest wildcard — if he can't find the strike zone, the Orioles bullpen will be taxed early and runs will flow freely."
run line
35%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -5.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Chris Bassitt's historically poor command (8.78 BB/9) this season is the biggest wildcard — if he can't find the strike zone, the Orioles bullpen will be taxed early and runs will flow freely."
over under
43%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Chris Bassitt's historically poor command (8.78 BB/9) this season is the biggest wildcard — if he can't find the strike zone, the Orioles bullpen will be taxed early and runs will flow freely."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
58%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
BAL
Edge: +8.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Logan Webb's season ERA of 7.36 significantly underperforms his career 3.42 baseline, creating vulnerability against BAL's superior offensive metrics at home."
run line
52%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
BAL -1.5
Edge: -11.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Logan Webb's season ERA of 7.36 significantly underperforms his career 3.42 baseline, creating vulnerability against BAL's superior offensive metrics at home."
over under
55%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
PUSH
"Logan Webb's season ERA of 7.36 significantly underperforms his career 3.42 baseline, creating vulnerability against BAL's superior offensive metrics at home."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
36%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
SFG
Edge: -18.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
41%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
BAL -1.5
Edge: -22.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
over under
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 7.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -120 | +100 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 7.5 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +140 (+1.5) | -170 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +112 | -123 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.5 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | +149 (+1.5) | -170 (-1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -122 | -103 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 7.5 (O -103/U -122) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | +148 (+1.5) | -186 (-1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | -110 | +100 | |
| BetUS | over under | 7.5 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| BetUS | run line | +148 (+1.5) | -170 (-1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -115 | -105 | |
| Bovada | over under | 7.5 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| Bovada | run line | +150 (+1.5) | -175 (-1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -120 | +100 | |
| Caesars | over under | 7.5 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| Caesars | run line | +143 (+1.5) | -170 (-1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +109 | -131 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 8.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +144 (+1.5) | -175 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +114 | -134 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -192 (-1.5) | +158 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +110 | -130 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +155 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +112 | -123 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.5 (O 103/U -118) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | +150 (+1.5) | -170 (-1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -116 | -101 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -101/U -120) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +146 (+1.5) | -179 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.