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Final 0-2
Comerica Park
MIA
Miami Marlins
Chris Paddack
0
@
DET
Detroit Tigers
Keider Montero
2
2026-04-10 · 22:40 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
2 of 3 agree (away)
run line
2 of 3 agree (away)
over under
2 of 3 agree (over)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
37%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -8.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Detroit's unknown home starter is the biggest wildcard — if they're forced to use a spot starter or reliever, Miami's lineup advantage becomes significant despite Paddack's early-season struggles."
run line
39%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -25.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Detroit's unknown home starter is the biggest wildcard — if they're forced to use a spot starter or reliever, Miami's lineup advantage becomes significant despite Paddack's early-season struggles."
over under
51%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Detroit's unknown home starter is the biggest wildcard — if they're forced to use a spot starter or reliever, Miami's lineup advantage becomes significant despite Paddack's early-season struggles."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -7.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Detroit's significantly worse pitching (4.40 ERA vs 3.79) and weak offense combined with Miami's strong overall record create a clear advantage for the visiting Marlins."
run line
58%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -6.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Detroit's significantly worse pitching (4.40 ERA vs 3.79) and weak offense combined with Miami's strong overall record create a clear advantage for the visiting Marlins."
over under
54%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Detroit's significantly worse pitching (4.40 ERA vs 3.79) and weak offense combined with Miami's strong overall record create a clear advantage for the visiting Marlins."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
52%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
DET
Edge: -5.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
61%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
DET -1.5
Edge: +22.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
over under
49%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 9.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +115 | -135 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -185 (-1.5) | +150 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +122 | -135 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 7.5 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -180 (-1.5) | +157 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +120 | -150 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.5 (O -114/U -109) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -182 (-1.5) | +145 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +116 | -127 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -180 (-1.5) | +156 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +109 | -131 | |
| Bovada | over under | 8.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -180 (-1.5) | +155 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +118 | -140 | |
| Caesars | over under | 7.5 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +158 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +119 | -143 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 7.5 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -186 (-1.5) | +153 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +118 | -138 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 7.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -200 (-1.5) | +164 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +115 | -140 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 7.5 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +155 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +122 | -135 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 7.5 (O 103/U -118) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -180 (-1.5) | +158 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +115 | -135 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -116/U -105) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -182 (-1.5) | +147 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.