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Final 6-0 Truist Park
CLE
Cleveland Guardians
Parker Messick
6
@
ATL
Atlanta Braves
Martín Pérez
0
2026-04-11 · 23:15 UTC

Predictions

Cross-Model Agreement

moneyline All 3 models agree (home)
run line All 3 models agree (home)
over under All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet) LLM
moneyline 45% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -9.6% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Atlanta's elite team pitching (2.03 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) combined with a significant offensive advantage over Cleveland makes the Braves strong home favorites, though Reynaldo López's 7-game suspension weakens their bullpen depth."

run line 26% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -10.2% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Atlanta's elite team pitching (2.03 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) combined with a significant offensive advantage over Cleveland makes the Braves strong home favorites, though Reynaldo López's 7-game suspension weakens their bullpen depth."

over under 51% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"Atlanta's elite team pitching (2.03 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) combined with a significant offensive advantage over Cleveland makes the Braves strong home favorites, though Reynaldo López's 7-game suspension weakens their bullpen depth."

Haiku Current Series Record LLM
moneyline 36% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -18.6% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Atlanta's dominant team ERA (2.03) and offensive consistency (5.08 RPG) overwhelm Cleveland's anemic lineup (0.218 BA, 3.54 RPG)."

run line 55% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: +18.8% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Atlanta's dominant team ERA (2.03) and offensive consistency (5.08 RPG) overwhelm Cleveland's anemic lineup (0.218 BA, 3.54 RPG)."

over under 58% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"Atlanta's dominant team ERA (2.03) and offensive consistency (5.08 RPG) overwhelm Cleveland's anemic lineup (0.218 BA, 3.54 RPG)."

ML Baseline ML
moneyline 53% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
ATL
Edge: -1.6% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST
run line 37% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
ATL -1.5
Edge: +0.8% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST
over under 49% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

Odds Comparison
Sportsbook Type Away Home Total
BetMGM moneyline -102 -118
BetMGM over under 8.0 (O -115/U -105)
BetOnline.ag moneyline +154 -170
BetOnline.ag over under 7.5 (O -126/U 106)
BetOnline.ag run line -202 (-1.5) +175 (+1.5)
BetRivers moneyline -106 -118
BetRivers over under 8.0 (O -120/U -105)
BetRivers run line +160 (+1.5) -205 (-1.5)
BetUS moneyline +105 -115
BetUS over under 8.0 (O -115/U -105)
BetUS run line -200 (-1.5) +172 (+1.5)
Bovada moneyline +100 -120
Bovada over under 8.0 (O -120/U 100)
Bovada run line -210 (-1.5) +175 (+1.5)
Caesars moneyline +105 -125
Caesars over under 8.0 (O -115/U -105)
Caesars run line -220 (-1.5) +180 (+1.5)
DraftKings moneyline +153 -186
DraftKings over under 7.5 (O -120/U 100)
DraftKings run line +156 (+1.5) -190 (-1.5)
FanDuel moneyline +160 -190
FanDuel over under 7.5 (O -115/U -105)
FanDuel run line -142 (-1.5) +118 (+1.5)
Fanatics moneyline +100 -120
Fanatics over under 8.0 (O -115/U -105)
Fanatics run line +170 (+1.5) -205 (-1.5)
LowVig.ag moneyline +154 -170
LowVig.ag over under 7.5 (O -124/U 108)
LowVig.ag run line -201 (-1.5) +176 (+1.5)
MyBookie.ag moneyline +102 -120
MyBookie.ag over under 8.0 (O -116/U -105)
MyBookie.ag run line -212 (-1.5) +170 (+1.5)

Team Stats

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