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Final 2-0
Wrigley Field
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Carmen Mlodzinski
2
@
CHC
Chicago Cubs
Shota Imanaga
0
2026-04-10 · 18:20 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
2 of 3 agree (home)
run line
All 3 models agree (home)
over under
All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
45%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -14.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Shota Imanaga's career-level command and control (1.01 WHIP, 1.56 BB/9) give the Cubs a significant pitching advantage over Mlodzinski, whose small 2026 sample and elevated WHIP (1.56) suggest vulnerability."
run line
24%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -13.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Shota Imanaga's career-level command and control (1.01 WHIP, 1.56 BB/9) give the Cubs a significant pitching advantage over Mlodzinski, whose small 2026 sample and elevated WHIP (1.56) suggest vulnerability."
over under
51%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Shota Imanaga's career-level command and control (1.01 WHIP, 1.56 BB/9) give the Cubs a significant pitching advantage over Mlodzinski, whose small 2026 sample and elevated WHIP (1.56) suggest vulnerability."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
58%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -1.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Imanaga's superior career track record and elite WHIP control gives CHC the pitching advantage needed to win at home against a struggling PIT offense."
run line
52%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: +14.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Imanaga's superior career track record and elite WHIP control gives CHC the pitching advantage needed to win at home against a struggling PIT offense."
over under
65%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Imanaga's superior career track record and elite WHIP control gives CHC the pitching advantage needed to win at home against a struggling PIT offense."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
36%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PIT
Edge: -9.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
57%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CHC -1.5
Edge: +19.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
43%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 9.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +120 | -145 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 6.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -180 (-1.5) | +145 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +122 | -135 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 6.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -168 (-1.5) | +148 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +130 | -165 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 6.5 (O -124/U 100) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -195 (-1.5) | +155 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +126 | -140 | |
| BetUS | over under | 6.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -170 (-1.5) | +148 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +122 | -145 | |
| Bovada | over under | 6.5 (O -125/U 105) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -175 (-1.5) | +150 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +118 | -140 | |
| Caesars | over under | 6.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -178 (-1.5) | +150 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +119 | -143 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 6.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -175 (-1.5) | +144 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +122 | -144 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 6.5 (O -122/U 100) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -200 (-1.5) | +164 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +120 | -145 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 6.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -170 (-1.5) | +140 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +122 | -135 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 6.5 (O -118/U 103) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -168 (-1.5) | +149 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +136 | -161 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 6.5 (O -119/U -103) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -178 (-1.5) | +144 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.