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Final 8-2
PNC Park
SDP
San Diego Padres
Michael King
8
@
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Mitch Keller
2
2026-04-08 · 16:35 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 3 models agree (home)
run line
All 3 models agree (home)
over under
2 of 3 agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -19.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Pittsburgh's potent home offense (3-0 at PNC Park, 5.0 R/G) against a Padres lineup struggling to score (3.56 R/G, .208 BA) is the primary edge favoring the Pirates."
run line
28%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -13.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Pittsburgh's potent home offense (3-0 at PNC Park, 5.0 R/G) against a Padres lineup struggling to score (3.56 R/G, .208 BA) is the primary edge favoring the Pirates."
over under
46%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Pittsburgh's potent home offense (3-0 at PNC Park, 5.0 R/G) against a Padres lineup struggling to score (3.56 R/G, .208 BA) is the primary edge favoring the Pirates."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
49%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -14.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Pittsburgh's dominant home performance (3-0 record) combined with superior offensive metrics creates strong advantage over struggling San Diego lineup."
run line
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: +2.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Pittsburgh's dominant home performance (3-0 record) combined with superior offensive metrics creates strong advantage over struggling San Diego lineup."
over under
65%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Pittsburgh's dominant home performance (3-0 record) combined with superior offensive metrics creates strong advantage over struggling San Diego lineup."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
43%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PIT
Edge: -20.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
35%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PIT -1.5
Edge: -6.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
52%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +155 | -200 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 6.5 (O -115/U -110) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -165 (-1.5) | +130 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +108 | -148 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 6.5 (O -129/U -110) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -150 (-1.0) | +110 (+1.0) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -125 | -105 | |
| Bovada | over under | 6.0 (O -125/U -105) | ||
| Bovada | run line | +115 (+1.0) | -150 (-1.0) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +125 | -160 | |
| Caesars | over under | 6.5 (O -105/U -125) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -180 (-1.5) | +145 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +140 | -185 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 6.5 (O -116/U -112) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -166 (-1.5) | +127 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +134 | -172 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 6.5 (O -114/U -114) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -188 (-1.5) | +140 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +140 | -185 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 6.5 (O -110/U -120) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -165 (-1.5) | +125 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -167 | +125 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 7.0 (O -105/U -125) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +110 (+1.5) | -154 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.