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Final 2-5
Fenway Park
SDP
San Diego Padres
Michael King
2
@
BOS
Boston Red Sox
Sonny Gray
5
2026-04-03 · 18:10 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
1 of 2 agree (away)
run line
1 of 2 agree (away)
over under
1 of 2 agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -6.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Sonny Gray's early-season struggles (6.75 ERA, 1.75 WHIP in 4 IP) versus Michael King's superior career profile and current season performance gives the Padres a slight edge despite playing at Fenway."
run line
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -25.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Sonny Gray's early-season struggles (6.75 ERA, 1.75 WHIP in 4 IP) versus Michael King's superior career profile and current season performance gives the Padres a slight edge despite playing at Fenway."
over under
33%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Edge: -21.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Sonny Gray's early-season struggles (6.75 ERA, 1.75 WHIP in 4 IP) versus Michael King's superior career profile and current season performance gives the Padres a slight edge despite playing at Fenway."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
48%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
BOS
Edge: -6.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
BOS -1.5
Edge: +2.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
over under
34%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 6.0
Edge: -16.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +100 | -120 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +165 (+1.5) | -200 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +130 | -143 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.5 (O 112/U -132) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +165 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -103 | -121 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.0 (O -121/U -103) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | +170 (+1.5) | -220 (-1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +109 | -120 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +164 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +103 | -123 | |
| Bovada | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -200 (-1.5) | +170 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +122 | -145 | |
| Caesars | over under | 8.5 (O 105/U -125) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -195 (-1.5) | +162 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +123 | -149 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 8.5 (O 104/U -126) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -193 (-1.5) | +159 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +116 | -136 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.0 (O -120/U -102) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -192 (-1.5) | +158 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +105 | -125 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -200 (-1.5) | +165 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +130 | -143 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.5 (O 114/U -130) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +166 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +106 | -125 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -122/U 100) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -196 (-1.5) | +159 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.