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Final 0-6
Target Field
BOS
Boston Red Sox
Sonny Gray
0
@
MIN
Minnesota Twins
Mick Abel
6
2026-04-14 · 23:40 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
2 of 3 agree (away)
run line
2 of 3 agree (home)
over under
All 3 models agree (over)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
43%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -14.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Mick Abel's historically poor 11.05 ERA and 8.87 BB/9 this season creates a massive pitching mismatch that strongly favors Boston and a high-scoring game."
run line
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -6.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Mick Abel's historically poor 11.05 ERA and 8.87 BB/9 this season creates a massive pitching mismatch that strongly favors Boston and a high-scoring game."
over under
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Mick Abel's historically poor 11.05 ERA and 8.87 BB/9 this season creates a massive pitching mismatch that strongly favors Boston and a high-scoring game."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
58%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: +11.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Mick Abel's historically poor 11.05 ERA and control problems make him a major liability for Minnesota despite home field advantage."
run line
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -16.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Mick Abel's historically poor 11.05 ERA and control problems make him a major liability for Minnesota despite home field advantage."
over under
26%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Mick Abel's historically poor 11.05 ERA and control problems make him a major liability for Minnesota despite home field advantage."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
39%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
BOS
Edge: -18.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
39%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
MIN -1.5
Edge: -19.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
over under
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -135 | +115 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | -134 | +122 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | +122 (+1.5) | -142 (-1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -136 | +110 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.0 (O -110/U -113) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | +123 (+1.5) | -155 (-1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | -135 | +122 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.0 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetUS | run line | +120 (+1.5) | -140 (-1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -143 | +120 | |
| Bovada | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Bovada | run line | +125 (+1.5) | -145 (-1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -130 | +110 | |
| Caesars | over under | 8.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Caesars | run line | +140 (+1.5) | -165 (-1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -131 | +109 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +135 (+1.5) | -163 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -126 | +108 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 7.5 (O -124/U 102) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +142 (+1.5) | -172 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -140 | +115 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +130 (+1.5) | -155 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | -134 | +122 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -113/U -102) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | +124 (+1.5) | -140 (-1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -135 | +115 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -114/U -108) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +120 (+1.5) | -147 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.