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Final 0-2
Kauffman Stadium
CHW
Chicago White Sox
Erick Fedde
0
@
KCR
Kansas City Royals
Michael Wacha
2
2026-04-11 · 20:10 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 3 models agree (home)
run line
All 3 models agree (home)
over under
All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
47%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -33.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Michael Wacha's exceptional early-season performance (0.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP) against a White Sox lineup that is one of MLB's worst offensively makes Kansas City the clear favorite."
run line
26%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -10.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Michael Wacha's exceptional early-season performance (0.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP) against a White Sox lineup that is one of MLB's worst offensively makes Kansas City the clear favorite."
over under
37%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Michael Wacha's exceptional early-season performance (0.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP) against a White Sox lineup that is one of MLB's worst offensively makes Kansas City the clear favorite."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
36%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -44.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Michael Wacha's dominant early-season pitching (0.0 ERA, 10.5 K/9) gives Kansas City a decisive advantage against a struggling White Sox offense."
run line
48%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: +11.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Michael Wacha's dominant early-season pitching (0.0 ERA, 10.5 K/9) gives Kansas City a decisive advantage against a struggling White Sox offense."
over under
61%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Michael Wacha's dominant early-season pitching (0.0 ERA, 10.5 K/9) gives Kansas City a decisive advantage against a struggling White Sox offense."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
KCR
Edge: -36.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
KCR -1.5
Edge: +1.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
over under
48%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +310 | -425 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 3.5 (O 110/U -140) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -200 (-1.5) | +155 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +169 | -187 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 9.0 (O -117/U -103) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -129 (-1.5) | +109 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +325 | -530 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 3.5 (O 102/U -143) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -200 (-1.5) | +148 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +162 | -185 | |
| BetUS | over under | 9.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -130 (-1.5) | +110 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +230 | -325 | |
| Bovada | over under | 4.5 (O -115/U -115) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -155 (-1.5) | +120 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +280 | -380 | |
| Caesars | over under | 3.5 (O 110/U -140) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -200 (-1.5) | +160 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +315 | -465 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 3.5 (O -115/U -113) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -165 (-1.5) | +126 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +285 | -400 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 3.5 (O 116/U -154) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -240 (-1.5) | +174 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +265 | -375 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 3.5 (O -105/U -125) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -205 (-1.5) | +155 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +169 | -187 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 9.0 (O -115/U 100) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -127 (-1.5) | +112 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +330 | -500 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 4.0 (O -118/U -118) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -133 (-1.5) | -105 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.