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Final 7-13
Citizens Bank Park
CHC
Chicago Cubs
Javier Assad
7
@
PHI
Philadelphia Phillies
Cristopher Sánchez
13
2026-04-13 · 22:40 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 3 models agree (home)
run line
2 of 3 agree (away)
over under
2 of 3 agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
36%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -29.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"With no pitcher data available and both teams sporting nearly identical weak offenses, PHI's home field edge and superior strikeout rate provide a slight edge, but this game is essentially a toss-up."
run line
37%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -23.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"With no pitcher data available and both teams sporting nearly identical weak offenses, PHI's home field edge and superior strikeout rate provide a slight edge, but this game is essentially a toss-up."
over under
55%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"With no pitcher data available and both teams sporting nearly identical weak offenses, PHI's home field edge and superior strikeout rate provide a slight edge, but this game is essentially a toss-up."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
52%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PHI
Edge: -13.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Both teams' offensive struggles (.216 BA) combined with CHC's superior team ERA (3.24) should produce a low-scoring game with minimal run line separation."
run line
20%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -40.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Both teams' offensive struggles (.216 BA) combined with CHC's superior team ERA (3.24) should produce a low-scoring game with minimal run line separation."
over under
56%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Both teams' offensive struggles (.216 BA) combined with CHC's superior team ERA (3.24) should produce a low-scoring game with minimal run line separation."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
49%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PHI
Edge: -16.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
54%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PHI -1.5
Edge: +10.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
over under
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +154 | -185 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.5 (O -118/U -102) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -135 (-1.5) | +115 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +122 | -135 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 9.0 (O -118/U -102) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -150 (-1.5) | +130 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +148 | -186 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.5 (O -120/U -105) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -148 (-1.5) | +117 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +147 | -166 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -150 (-1.5) | +130 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +150 | -182 | |
| Bovada | over under | 8.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -140 (-1.5) | +120 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +118 | -140 | |
| Caesars | over under | 9.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -170 (-1.5) | +143 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +119 | -143 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 9.0 (O -112/U -108) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -175 (-1.5) | +144 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +124 | -146 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 9.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -172 (-1.5) | +142 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +120 | -145 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 9.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -165 (-1.5) | +135 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +122 | -135 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 9.0 (O -116/U 101) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -149 (-1.5) | +132 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +152 | -182 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -118/U -104) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -137 (-1.5) | +112 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.