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Final 4-10
Target Field
TBR
Tampa Bay Rays
Joe Boyle
4
@
MIN
Minnesota Twins
Bailey Ober
10
2026-04-03 · 20:10 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 2 models agree (away)
run line
All 2 models agree (away)
over under
All 2 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
35%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -44.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Bailey Ober's early-season struggles (6.75 ERA) contrast with Joe Boyle's strong start (3.00 ERA), giving Tampa Bay a meaningful pitching advantage in this matchup."
run line
32%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -24.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Bailey Ober's early-season struggles (6.75 ERA) contrast with Joe Boyle's strong start (3.00 ERA), giving Tampa Bay a meaningful pitching advantage in this matchup."
over under
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Edge: -9.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Bailey Ober's early-season struggles (6.75 ERA) contrast with Joe Boyle's strong start (3.00 ERA), giving Tampa Bay a meaningful pitching advantage in this matchup."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
36%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
TBR
Edge: -43.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
45%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
TBR +1.5
Edge: -11.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
34%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 9.0
Edge: -17.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -375 | +280 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 7.5 (O 118/U -150) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +115 (+2.5) | -150 (-2.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | -101 | -109 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.0 (O 110/U -130) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -220 (-1.5) | +186 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -435 | +275 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 7.5 (O -109/U -129) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -104 (+2.5) | -132 (-2.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | -105 | -105 | |
| BetUS | over under | 7.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -220 (-1.5) | +188 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -475 | +315 | |
| Bovada | over under | 7.5 (O -115/U -115) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -120 (+2.5) | -110 (-2.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -105 | -115 | |
| Caesars | over under | 8.0 (O 110/U -130) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -130 (+2.5) | +100 (-2.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -105 | -115 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 8.0 (O 109/U -131) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -143 (+2.5) | +110 (-2.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -104 | -112 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 7.5 (O -124/U 102) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +168 (+1.5) | -205 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +100 | -120 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 7.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +165 (+1.5) | -200 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | -101 | -109 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.0 (O 112/U -128) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -218 (-1.5) | +189 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -455 | +315 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -125/U -118) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -133 (+2.5) | -105 (-2.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.