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Final 4-2
Busch Stadium
NYM
New York Mets
Clay Holmes
4
@
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
Kyle Leahy
2
2026-03-30 · 23:45 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 2 models agree (away)
run line
1 of 2 agree (away)
over under
All 2 models agree (over)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
62%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: +1.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Kyle Leahy's inexperience as a starter (only 1 career start) versus Clay Holmes's proven track record gives NYM a clear pitching advantage, though STL's powerful home offense keeps this competitive."
run line
65%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: +18.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Kyle Leahy's inexperience as a starter (only 1 career start) versus Clay Holmes's proven track record gives NYM a clear pitching advantage, though STL's powerful home offense keeps this competitive."
over under
55%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Edge: +2.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Kyle Leahy's inexperience as a starter (only 1 career start) versus Clay Holmes's proven track record gives NYM a clear pitching advantage, though STL's powerful home offense keeps this competitive."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
45%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
NYM
Edge: -15.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
86%
HIGH
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
STL -1.5
Edge: +29.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
83%
HIGH
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 13.5
Edge: +30.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -150 | +125 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 9.0 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +110 (+1.5) | -130 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | -155 | +140 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -107/U -113) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | +110 (+1.5) | -130 (-1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -148 | +117 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.5 (O -121/U -103) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | +117 (+1.5) | -148 (-1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | -145 | +130 | |
| BetUS | over under | 9.0 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| BetUS | run line | +110 (+1.5) | -130 (-1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -149 | +125 | |
| Bovada | over under | 9.0 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| Bovada | run line | +115 (+1.5) | -135 (-1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -155 | +130 | |
| Caesars | over under | 8.5 (O -125/U 105) | ||
| Caesars | run line | +110 (+1.5) | -130 (-1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -156 | +129 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 9.0 (O -101/U -119) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +109 (+1.5) | -131 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -158 | +134 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.5 (O -122/U 100) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +105 (+1.5) | -126 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -155 | +130 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 9.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +105 (+1.5) | -125 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | -155 | +140 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -104/U -110) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | +113 (+1.5) | -128 (-1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -152 | +129 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 9.0 (O -101/U -120) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +108 (+1.5) | -132 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.