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Final 6-3
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CIN
Cincinnati Reds
Andrew Abbott
6
@
MIA
Miami Marlins
Sandy Alcantara
3
2026-04-07 · 22:40 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 3 models agree (home)
run line
All 3 models agree (home)
over under
All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -16.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Sandy Alcantara's historically dominant start to 2026 (0.00 ERA, 0.56 WHIP over 16 IP) paired against Cincinnati's league-worst offense makes Miami a strong favorite in a low-scoring game."
run line
30%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -8.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Sandy Alcantara's historically dominant start to 2026 (0.00 ERA, 0.56 WHIP over 16 IP) paired against Cincinnati's league-worst offense makes Miami a strong favorite in a low-scoring game."
over under
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.0
Edge: -13.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Sandy Alcantara's historically dominant start to 2026 (0.00 ERA, 0.56 WHIP over 16 IP) paired against Cincinnati's league-worst offense makes Miami a strong favorite in a low-scoring game."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
49%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -9.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Sandy Alcantara's dominant pitching performance (0.0 ERA, 0.56 WHIP) creates a significant mismatch against Cincinnati's struggling offense."
run line
39%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: +0.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Sandy Alcantara's dominant pitching performance (0.0 ERA, 0.56 WHIP) creates a significant mismatch against Cincinnati's struggling offense."
over under
68%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.0
Edge: +12.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Sandy Alcantara's dominant pitching performance (0.0 ERA, 0.56 WHIP) creates a significant mismatch against Cincinnati's struggling offense."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
54%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
MIA
Edge: -4.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
MIA -1.5
Edge: +1.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
52%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Edge: -3.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +118 | -145 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 7.0 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +155 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +118 | -130 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -182 (-1.5) | +159 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +112 | -139 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 7.0 (O -122/U 100) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -220 (-1.5) | +170 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +118 | -130 | |
| BetUS | over under | 7.0 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -180 (-1.5) | +156 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +118 | -141 | |
| Bovada | over under | 7.0 (O -130/U 110) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -185 (-1.5) | +160 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +115 | -135 | |
| Caesars | over under | 7.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +158 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +113 | -136 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 7.5 (O -112/U -108) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -192 (-1.5) | +157 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +106 | -124 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 7.5 (O -122/U 100) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -210 (-1.5) | +172 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +115 | -140 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 7.0 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -175 (-1.5) | +145 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +118 | -130 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -113/U -102) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -182 (-1.5) | +160 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +120 | -141 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 7.0 (O -125/U 102) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -188 (-1.5) | +152 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.