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Final 5-11
Truist Park
CLE
Cleveland Guardians
Slade Cecconi
5
@
ATL
Atlanta Braves
Bryce Elder
11
2026-04-10 · 23:15 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 3 models agree (home)
run line
All 3 models agree (home)
over under
All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -15.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Bryce Elder's dominant 2026 start (0.00 ERA, 0.85 WHIP) facing a Cleveland offense hitting just .218 gives Atlanta a commanding pitching advantage."
run line
33%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -6.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Bryce Elder's dominant 2026 start (0.00 ERA, 0.85 WHIP) facing a Cleveland offense hitting just .218 gives Atlanta a commanding pitching advantage."
over under
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Bryce Elder's dominant 2026 start (0.00 ERA, 0.85 WHIP) facing a Cleveland offense hitting just .218 gives Atlanta a commanding pitching advantage."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
41%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -16.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"ATL's elite pitching (Elder 0.00 ERA, team 2.03 ERA) overwhelms CLE's struggling offense and Cecconi's high ERA."
run line
62%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: +22.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"ATL's elite pitching (Elder 0.00 ERA, team 2.03 ERA) overwhelms CLE's struggling offense and Cecconi's high ERA."
over under
69%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"ATL's elite pitching (Elder 0.00 ERA, team 2.03 ERA) overwhelms CLE's struggling offense and Cecconi's high ERA."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
54%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
ATL
Edge: -3.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
ATL -1.5
Edge: -1.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
over under
50%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +115 | -135 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.5 (O -118/U -102) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +155 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +106 | -117 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.5 (O 110/U -130) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -177 (-1.5) | +155 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +114 | -141 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.5 (O -115/U -108) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -186 (-1.5) | +150 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +117 | -128 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -175 (-1.5) | +152 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +113 | -135 | |
| Bovada | over under | 8.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -180 (-1.5) | +155 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +100 | -120 | |
| Caesars | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +158 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +102 | -122 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 8.0 (O -113/U -106) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -180 (-1.5) | +148 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -104 | -112 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.5 (O 100/U -122) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +164 (+1.5) | -200 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +100 | -120 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +165 (+1.5) | -200 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +106 | -117 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.5 (O 112/U -128) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -177 (-1.5) | +156 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +117 | -137 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -115/U -106) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -185 (-1.5) | +149 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.