Skip to main content
Baseball Predictor
Log In
Back to Schedule
Final 1-3 Target Field
DET
Detroit Tigers
Jack Flaherty
1
@
MIN
Minnesota Twins
Mick Abel
3
2026-04-09 · 17:40 UTC

Predictions

Cross-Model Agreement

moneyline 2 of 3 agree (home)
run line 2 of 3 agree (home)
over under All 3 models agree (over)
AI Baseline (Sonnet) LLM
moneyline 42% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -14.9% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Mick Abel's historically poor 11.05 ERA and 2.86 WHIP are offset somewhat by Jack Flaherty's own early-season struggles (7.56 ERA, 8.89 BB/9), making this a battle of struggling starters where Minnesota's home field edge tips the balance."

run line 36% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -7.9% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Mick Abel's historically poor 11.05 ERA and 2.86 WHIP are offset somewhat by Jack Flaherty's own early-season struggles (7.56 ERA, 8.89 BB/9), making this a battle of struggling starters where Minnesota's home field edge tips the balance."

over under 43% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 9.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Mick Abel's historically poor 11.05 ERA and 2.86 WHIP are offset somewhat by Jack Flaherty's own early-season struggles (7.56 ERA, 8.89 BB/9), making this a battle of struggling starters where Minnesota's home field edge tips the balance."

Haiku Current Series Record LLM
moneyline 43% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -4.2% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"Minnesota's 2-0 H2H series lead and Detroit's weak 2-6 away record provide the decisive edge despite both teams featuring underperforming pitchers."

run line 36% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -24.6% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"Minnesota's 2-0 H2H series lead and Detroit's weak 2-6 away record provide the decisive edge despite both teams featuring underperforming pitchers."

over under 65% MED The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Minnesota's 2-0 H2H series lead and Detroit's weak 2-6 away record provide the decisive edge despite both teams featuring underperforming pitchers."

ML Baseline ML
moneyline 47% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
MIN
Edge: -0.2% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON
run line 55% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
MIN -1.5
Edge: -5.6% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON
over under 54% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

Odds Comparison
Sportsbook Type Away Home Total
BetMGM moneyline -130 +120
BetMGM over under 8.5 (O 100/U -120)
BetOnline.ag moneyline -132 +120
BetOnline.ag over under 8.5 (O 102/U -122)
BetOnline.ag run line +122 (+1.5) -142 (-1.5)
BetRivers moneyline -137 +112
BetRivers over under 8.0 (O -112/U -110)
BetRivers run line +123 (+1.5) -152 (-1.5)
BetUS moneyline -132 +120
BetUS over under 8.5 (O 100/U -120)
BetUS run line +130 (+1.5) -150 (-1.5)
Bovada moneyline -134 +112
Bovada over under 8.0 (O -120/U 100)
Bovada run line +130 (+1.5) -150 (-1.5)
Caesars moneyline -135 +115
Caesars over under 8.0 (O -115/U -105)
Caesars run line +122 (+1.5) -145 (-1.5)
DraftKings moneyline -136 +113
DraftKings over under 8.0 (O -115/U -105)
DraftKings run line +123 (+1.5) -149 (-1.5)
FanDuel moneyline -132 +112
FanDuel over under 8.0 (O -120/U -102)
FanDuel run line +128 (+1.5) -154 (-1.5)
Fanatics moneyline -140 +115
Fanatics over under 8.0 (O -115/U -105)
Fanatics run line +125 (+1.5) -150 (-1.5)
LowVig.ag moneyline -132 +120
LowVig.ag over under 8.5 (O 105/U -120)
LowVig.ag run line +124 (+1.5) -140 (-1.5)
MyBookie.ag moneyline -133 +113
MyBookie.ag over under 8.0 (O -116/U -105)
MyBookie.ag run line +123 (+1.5) -152 (-1.5)

Team Stats

Stats not yet available.