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Final 1-7
PNC Park
SDP
San Diego Padres
Nick Pivetta
1
@
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Paul Skenes
7
2026-04-07 · 22:40 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
2 of 3 agree (home)
run line
All 3 models agree (home)
over under
2 of 3 agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -14.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Paul Skenes' elite career profile (2.10 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) strongly suggests his rough early-2026 numbers are small-sample noise, while Pivetta's control issues (5.62 BB/9) pose a major risk for the Padres."
run line
26%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -11.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Paul Skenes' elite career profile (2.10 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) strongly suggests his rough early-2026 numbers are small-sample noise, while Pivetta's control issues (5.62 BB/9) pose a major risk for the Padres."
over under
35%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 6.5
Edge: -16.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Paul Skenes' elite career profile (2.10 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) strongly suggests his rough early-2026 numbers are small-sample noise, while Pivetta's control issues (5.62 BB/9) pose a major risk for the Padres."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
49%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -9.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Pittsburgh's perfect 3-0 home record and superior team offense provide a decisive edge against San Diego's struggling road lineup."
run line
39%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: +1.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Pittsburgh's perfect 3-0 home record and superior team offense provide a decisive edge against San Diego's struggling road lineup."
over under
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 6.5
Edge: -7.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Pittsburgh's perfect 3-0 home record and superior team offense provide a decisive edge against San Diego's struggling road lineup."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
47%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
SDP
Edge: +1.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
47%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PIT -1.5
Edge: +9.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
over under
57%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Edge: +4.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +125 | -150 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 6.5 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +155 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +100 | -110 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -188 (-1.5) | +164 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +123 | -155 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 6.0 (O -107/U -117) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -210 (-1.5) | +165 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +125 | -138 | |
| BetUS | over under | 6.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +164 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +118 | -141 | |
| Bovada | over under | 6.0 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -195 (-1.5) | +165 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -105 | -115 | |
| Caesars | over under | 7.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -195 (-1.5) | +162 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -105 | -115 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 7.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -180 (-1.5) | +148 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -110 | -106 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 7.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +158 (+1.5) | -192 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -105 | -115 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 7.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +160 (+1.5) | -195 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +100 | -110 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -102/U -113) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -188 (-1.5) | +165 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +121 | -143 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 6.0 (O -118/U -103) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -189 (-1.5) | +152 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.