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Final 6-4
Oracle Park
PHI
Philadelphia Phillies
Andrew Painter
6
@
SFG
San Francisco Giants
Adrian Houser
4
2026-04-07 · 01:45 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 2 models agree (away)
run line
All 2 models agree (away)
over under
All 2 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
48%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -6.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Andrew Painter's electric start to 2026 (1.69 ERA, 14+ K/9) against a struggling Giants offense scoring fewer than 3 runs per game is the decisive matchup advantage for Philadelphia."
run line
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: +1.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Andrew Painter's electric start to 2026 (1.69 ERA, 14+ K/9) against a struggling Giants offense scoring fewer than 3 runs per game is the decisive matchup advantage for Philadelphia."
over under
36%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Andrew Painter's electric start to 2026 (1.69 ERA, 14+ K/9) against a struggling Giants offense scoring fewer than 3 runs per game is the decisive matchup advantage for Philadelphia."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
43%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PHI
Edge: -11.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PHI +1.5
Edge: -2.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
over under
51%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -120 | +100 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.0 (O -118/U -102) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +145 (+1.5) | -175 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | -144 | +131 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 7.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | +145 (+1.5) | -165 (-1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -122 | +100 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.5 (O -108/U -115) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | +135 (+1.5) | -175 (-1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | -114 | +104 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.0 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetUS | run line | +144 (+1.5) | -165 (-1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -116 | -104 | |
| Bovada | over under | 8.0 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| Bovada | run line | +145 (+1.5) | -170 (-1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -155 | +130 | |
| Caesars | over under | 7.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Caesars | run line | +110 (+1.5) | -130 (-1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -156 | +129 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 7.0 (O -112/U -108) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +104 (+1.5) | -126 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -156 | +132 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 7.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +116 (+1.5) | -140 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -115 | -105 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.5 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +140 (+1.5) | -170 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | -144 | +131 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 7.0 (O -107/U -107) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | +146 (+1.5) | -165 (-1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -116 | -101 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -119/U -103) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +139 (+1.5) | -172 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.