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Final 6-9
T-Mobile Park
HOU
Houston Astros
Tatsuya Imai
6
@
SEA
Seattle Mariners
Emerson Hancock
9
2026-04-11 · 01:40 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
2 of 3 agree (away)
run line
2 of 3 agree (home)
over under
All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
48%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -10.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Emerson Hancock's elite 2026 performance (0.71 ERA, 0.55 WHIP) gives Seattle a massive pitching edge over a rookie Houston starter with control issues."
run line
28%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -10.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Emerson Hancock's elite 2026 performance (0.71 ERA, 0.55 WHIP) gives Seattle a massive pitching edge over a rookie Houston starter with control issues."
over under
46%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Emerson Hancock's elite 2026 performance (0.71 ERA, 0.55 WHIP) gives Seattle a massive pitching edge over a rookie Houston starter with control issues."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -7.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Emerson Hancock's 0.71 ERA is likely regression-bound to his 4.52 career mark, making Seattle's typically strong pitching vulnerable against Houston's superior offensive production."
run line
58%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -6.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Emerson Hancock's 0.71 ERA is likely regression-bound to his 4.52 career mark, making Seattle's typically strong pitching vulnerable against Houston's superior offensive production."
over under
55%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Emerson Hancock's 0.71 ERA is likely regression-bound to his 4.52 career mark, making Seattle's typically strong pitching vulnerable against Houston's superior offensive production."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
43%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOU
Edge: -2.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
54%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
SEA -1.5
Edge: +15.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
over under
48%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 9.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +118 | -140 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +155 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +122 | -135 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 7.0 (O -130/U 110) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -180 (-1.5) | +157 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +112 | -139 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.0 (O -104/U -121) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -200 (-1.5) | +160 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +126 | -140 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -180 (-1.5) | +156 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +115 | -138 | |
| Bovada | over under | 8.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -180 (-1.5) | +155 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +118 | -140 | |
| Caesars | over under | 7.0 (O -130/U 110) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +158 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +119 | -143 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 7.5 (O -102/U -118) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -186 (-1.5) | +153 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +116 | -134 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 7.5 (O -112/U -108) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -196 (-1.5) | +162 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +115 | -140 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +155 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +122 | -135 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 7.0 (O -128/U 112) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -180 (-1.5) | +158 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +121 | -143 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -108/U -114) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -187 (-1.5) | +151 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.