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Final 7-9 Oriole Park at Camden Yards
ARI
Arizona Diamondbacks
Ryne Nelson
7
@
BAL
Baltimore Orioles
Dean Kremer
9
2026-04-13 · 22:35 UTC

Predictions

Cross-Model Agreement

moneyline 2 of 3 agree (home)
run line 2 of 3 agree (away)
over under All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet) LLM
moneyline 36% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -20.5% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"No starting pitchers are announced for either team, making this a highly uncertain game where Baltimore's home field advantage and superior offense give a slight edge, but ARI's better pitching metrics keep them competitive."

run line 33% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -31.9% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"No starting pitchers are announced for either team, making this a highly uncertain game where Baltimore's home field advantage and superior offense give a slight edge, but ARI's better pitching metrics keep them competitive."

over under 50% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.0
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"No starting pitchers are announced for either team, making this a highly uncertain game where Baltimore's home field advantage and superior offense give a slight edge, but ARI's better pitching metrics keep them competitive."

Haiku Current Series Record LLM
moneyline 48% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
ARI
Edge: +0.6% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Arizona's superior pitching efficiency (ERA 3.67 vs 3.87) and Arizona's better offensive control (strikeout rate) give slight edge despite weaker record."

run line 42% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -22.9% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Arizona's superior pitching efficiency (ERA 3.67 vs 3.87) and Arizona's better offensive control (strikeout rate) give slight edge despite weaker record."

over under 55% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Arizona's superior pitching efficiency (ERA 3.67 vs 3.87) and Arizona's better offensive control (strikeout rate) give slight edge despite weaker record."

ML Baseline ML
moneyline 48% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
BAL
Edge: -8.5% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON
run line 54% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
BAL -1.5
Edge: +14.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON
over under 36% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.0
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

Odds Comparison
Sportsbook Type Away Home Total
BetMGM moneyline +110 -130
BetMGM over under 9.0 (O 100/U -120)
BetMGM run line -190 (-1.5) +155 (+1.5)
BetOnline.ag moneyline +133 -147
BetOnline.ag over under 8.5 (O -102/U -118)
BetOnline.ag run line -187 (-1.5) +163 (+1.5)
BetRivers moneyline +110 -136
BetRivers over under 9.0 (O -114/U -109)
BetRivers run line -195 (-1.5) +155 (+1.5)
BetUS moneyline +114 -125
BetUS over under 9.0 (O -105/U -115)
BetUS run line -190 (-1.5) +164 (+1.5)
Bovada moneyline +106 -126
Bovada over under 9.0 (O -105/U -115)
Bovada run line -195 (-1.5) +165 (+1.5)
Caesars moneyline +122 -145
Caesars over under 8.5 (O 100/U -120)
Caesars run line -178 (-1.5) +150 (+1.5)
DraftKings moneyline +123 -149
DraftKings over under 8.5 (O -105/U -115)
DraftKings run line -186 (-1.5) +153 (+1.5)
FanDuel moneyline +124 -146
FanDuel over under 8.5 (O -105/U -115)
FanDuel run line -170 (-1.5) +140 (+1.5)
Fanatics moneyline +125 -150
Fanatics over under 8.5 (O -105/U -115)
Fanatics run line -165 (-1.5) +135 (+1.5)
LowVig.ag moneyline +133 -147
LowVig.ag over under 8.5 (O 101/U -116)
LowVig.ag run line -187 (-1.5) +164 (+1.5)
MyBookie.ag moneyline +111 -130
MyBookie.ag over under 9.0 (O -106/U -115)
MyBookie.ag run line -185 (-1.5) +150 (+1.5)

Team Stats

Stats not yet available.