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Final 5-16
PNC Park
WSN
Washington Nationals
PJ Poulin
5
@
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Paul Skenes
16
2026-04-13 · 22:40 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 3 models agree (home)
run line
All 3 models agree (home)
over under
All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -30.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Pittsburgh's elite team ERA of 3.02 and high strikeout rate (9.84 K/9) give them a substantial pitching edge over Washington's struggling 5.47 ERA staff."
run line
33%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -15.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Pittsburgh's elite team ERA of 3.02 and high strikeout rate (9.84 K/9) give them a substantial pitching edge over Washington's struggling 5.47 ERA staff."
over under
36%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Pittsburgh's elite team ERA of 3.02 and high strikeout rate (9.84 K/9) give them a substantial pitching edge over Washington's struggling 5.47 ERA staff."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
36%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -34.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Pittsburgh's dominant pitching advantage (3.02 ERA vs 5.47 ERA) combined with strong home record creates a significant edge over the struggling Nationals."
run line
22%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -26.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Pittsburgh's dominant pitching advantage (3.02 ERA vs 5.47 ERA) combined with strong home record creates a significant edge over the struggling Nationals."
over under
59%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Pittsburgh's dominant pitching advantage (3.02 ERA vs 5.47 ERA) combined with strong home record creates a significant edge over the struggling Nationals."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PIT
Edge: -28.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
35%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PIT -1.5
Edge: -13.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
over under
55%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 10.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +180 | -220 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 7.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -120 (-1.5) | +100 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +162 | -180 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -130/U 110) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -122 (-1.5) | +102 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +188 | -240 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 7.5 (O -117/U -107) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -122 (-1.5) | +100 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +178 | -205 | |
| BetUS | over under | 7.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -120 (-1.5) | +100 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +178 | -218 | |
| Bovada | over under | 7.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -125 (-1.5) | +105 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +158 | -190 | |
| Caesars | over under | 8.5 (O -130/U 110) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -145 (-1.5) | +122 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +153 | -186 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 9.0 (O -105/U -114) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -149 (-1.5) | +123 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +158 | -188 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.5 (O -122/U 100) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -137 (-1.5) | +114 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +150 | -180 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 9.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -130 (-1.5) | +110 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +162 | -180 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -128/U 112) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -119 (-1.5) | +105 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +184 | -222 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -118/U -104) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -121 (-1.5) | +100 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.