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Final 7-4
Rogers Centre
MIN
Minnesota Twins
Joe Ryan
7
@
TOR
Toronto Blue Jays
Eric Lauer
4
2026-04-11 · 19:07 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
2 of 3 agree (home)
run line
2 of 3 agree (home)
over under
2 of 3 agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
39%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -14.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Eric Lauer's surprisingly dominant early-season performance (3.38 ERA, 15.88 K/9) gives Toronto a meaningful pitching edge at home against a struggling Minnesota offense."
run line
29%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -9.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Eric Lauer's surprisingly dominant early-season performance (3.38 ERA, 15.88 K/9) gives Toronto a meaningful pitching edge at home against a struggling Minnesota offense."
over under
37%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Eric Lauer's surprisingly dominant early-season performance (3.38 ERA, 15.88 K/9) gives Toronto a meaningful pitching edge at home against a struggling Minnesota offense."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
36%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -17.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Eric Lauer's dominant early-season form and elite strikeout rate provide a significant pitching advantage for Toronto at home against a Minnesota team struggling in away games."
run line
55%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -11.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Eric Lauer's dominant early-season form and elite strikeout rate provide a significant pitching advantage for Toronto at home against a Minnesota team struggling in away games."
over under
59%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Eric Lauer's dominant early-season form and elite strikeout rate provide a significant pitching advantage for Toronto at home against a Minnesota team struggling in away games."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
45%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
MIN
Edge: -5.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
34%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
TOR -1.5
Edge: -32.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
43%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -105 | -115 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +165 (+1.5) | -200 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +100 | -110 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.5 (O 102/U -122) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -205 (-1.5) | +177 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +102 | -127 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.0 (O -106/U -118) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -230 (-1.5) | +175 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +105 | -115 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.0 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -210 (-1.5) | +180 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +103 | -123 | |
| Bovada | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -210 (-1.5) | +175 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +100 | -120 | |
| Caesars | over under | 8.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -220 (-1.5) | +180 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +105 | -126 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 8.0 (O -112/U -108) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +164 (+1.5) | -201 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -102 | -116 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +168 (+1.5) | -205 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +100 | -120 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -200 (-1.5) | +165 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +100 | -110 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.5 (O 105/U -120) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -204 (-1.5) | +179 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +104 | -122 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -106) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -217 (-1.5) | +173 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.