Back to Schedule
Final 1-2
Busch Stadium
NYM
New York Mets
Freddy Peralta
1
@
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
Matthew Liberatore
2
2026-04-01 · 17:15 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 2 models agree (away)
run line
All 2 models agree (away)
over under
1 of 2 agree (over)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
52%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -10.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"NYM's clear pitching advantage with Peralta's elite strikeout ability against STL's struggling staff (6.32 ERA) makes the Mets the more reliable side, but Liberatore's low ERA this season adds some uncertainty."
run line
55%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: +6.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"NYM's clear pitching advantage with Peralta's elite strikeout ability against STL's struggling staff (6.32 ERA) makes the Mets the more reliable side, but Liberatore's low ERA this season adds some uncertainty."
over under
48%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"NYM's clear pitching advantage with Peralta's elite strikeout ability against STL's struggling staff (6.32 ERA) makes the Mets the more reliable side, but Liberatore's low ERA this season adds some uncertainty."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
54%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
NYM
Edge: -8.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
53%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
NYM +1.5
Edge: +4.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
61%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 11.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -170 | +140 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 7.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +100 (+1.5) | -120 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | -162 | +147 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -113/U -107) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | +100 (+1.5) | -120 (-1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -175 | +138 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 7.5 (O -118/U -106) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | +104 (+1.5) | -129 (-1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | -162 | +144 | |
| BetUS | over under | 7.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetUS | run line | +100 (+1.5) | -120 (-1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -172 | +142 | |
| Bovada | over under | 7.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Bovada | run line | +100 (+1.5) | -120 (-1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -165 | +140 | |
| Caesars | over under | 7.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Caesars | run line | +100 (+1.5) | -120 (-1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -166 | +137 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 7.5 (O -113/U -107) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +105 (+1.5) | -126 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -164 | +138 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 7.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +108 (+1.5) | -130 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -170 | +140 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 7.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +100 (+1.5) | -120 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | -162 | +147 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -110/U -104) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | +103 (+1.5) | -117 (-1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -164 | +138 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -112/U -109) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +100 (+1.5) | -120 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.