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Final 8-3
Great American Ball Park
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Bubba Chandler
8
@
CIN
Cincinnati Reds
Brandon Williamson
3
2026-03-31 · 22:40 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 2 models agree (home)
run line
All 2 models agree (home)
over under
All 2 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
52%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: +3.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Cincinnati's significantly better team ERA (3.10 vs 4.82) and home field advantage give them a moderate edge, though their anemic offense (.204 BA, 3.0 R/G) limits upside."
run line
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -18.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Cincinnati's significantly better team ERA (3.10 vs 4.82) and home field advantage give them a moderate edge, though their anemic offense (.204 BA, 3.0 R/G) limits upside."
over under
48%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Cincinnati's significantly better team ERA (3.10 vs 4.82) and home field advantage give them a moderate edge, though their anemic offense (.204 BA, 3.0 R/G) limits upside."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
62%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CIN
Edge: +13.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
45%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CIN -1.5
Edge: -15.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
78%
HIGH
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -120 | +100 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 9.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +125 (+1.5) | -150 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | -150 | +136 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | +120 (+1.5) | -140 (-1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -120 | -105 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 9.0 (O -115/U -108) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | +135 (+1.5) | -167 (-1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | -118 | +108 | |
| BetUS | over under | 9.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetUS | run line | +130 (+1.5) | -150 (-1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -124 | +104 | |
| Bovada | over under | 9.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Bovada | run line | +130 (+1.5) | -150 (-1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -155 | +130 | |
| Caesars | over under | 7.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Caesars | run line | +122 (+1.5) | -145 (-1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -156 | +129 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 7.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +119 (+1.5) | -143 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -156 | +132 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 7.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +114 (+1.5) | -137 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -155 | +130 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 7.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +110 (+1.5) | -130 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | -150 | +136 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -113/U -102) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | +122 (+1.5) | -138 (-1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -123 | +105 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 9.0 (O -112/U -109) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +125 (+1.5) | -154 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.