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Final 10-4
Truist Park
MIA
Miami Marlins
Eury Pérez
10
@
ATL
Atlanta Braves
Grant Holmes
4
2026-04-13 · 23:15 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 3 models agree (home)
run line
All 3 models agree (home)
over under
All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -19.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Eury Pérez's significant control regression this season (5.06 BB/9 vs 3.20 career) against a powerful ATL offense averaging 5.13 runs/game is the critical matchup disadvantage for Miami."
run line
33%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -8.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Eury Pérez's significant control regression this season (5.06 BB/9 vs 3.20 career) against a powerful ATL offense averaging 5.13 runs/game is the critical matchup disadvantage for Miami."
over under
36%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Edge: -18.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Eury Pérez's significant control regression this season (5.06 BB/9 vs 3.20 career) against a powerful ATL offense averaging 5.13 runs/game is the critical matchup disadvantage for Miami."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
33%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -28.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"ATL's significantly superior pitching metrics and Holmes' dominance (2.55 ERA) versus Pérez's struggles (5.06 ERA) creates a strong home advantage."
run line
20%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -21.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"ATL's significantly superior pitching metrics and Holmes' dominance (2.55 ERA) versus Pérez's struggles (5.06 ERA) creates a strong home advantage."
over under
55%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Edge: +0.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"ATL's significantly superior pitching metrics and Holmes' dominance (2.55 ERA) versus Pérez's struggles (5.06 ERA) creates a strong home advantage."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
43%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
ATL
Edge: -18.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
58%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
ATL -1.5
Edge: +17.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 9.5
Edge: -14.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +125 | -150 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.5 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -165 (-1.5) | +140 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +138 | -152 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -164 (-1.5) | +144 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +128 | -159 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.0 (O -114/U -109) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -175 (-1.5) | +138 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +130 | -145 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.5 (O 105/U -125) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -165 (-1.5) | +144 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +125 | -149 | |
| Bovada | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -165 (-1.5) | +140 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +130 | -155 | |
| Caesars | over under | 8.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -170 (-1.5) | +143 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +129 | -156 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 8.5 (O -108/U -112) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -171 (-1.5) | +141 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +128 | -152 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -178 (-1.5) | +146 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +125 | -150 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -165 (-1.5) | +135 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +138 | -152 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -107/U -107) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -164 (-1.5) | +145 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +126 | -147 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -108/U -114) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -172 (-1.5) | +140 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.