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Final 7-9
Yankee Stadium
MIA
Miami Marlins
Max Meyer
7
@
NYY
New York Yankees
Ryan Weathers
9
2026-04-04 · 23:05 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 2 models agree (home)
run line
All 2 models agree (home)
over under
All 2 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -22.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"NYY's historically dominant early-season pitching staff (1.01 ERA) gives them the edge at home against a Marlins team making their first road trip of 2026 with a pitcher whose career numbers raise concerns."
run line
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -8.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"NYY's historically dominant early-season pitching staff (1.01 ERA) gives them the edge at home against a Marlins team making their first road trip of 2026 with a pitcher whose career numbers raise concerns."
over under
32%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"NYY's historically dominant early-season pitching staff (1.01 ERA) gives them the edge at home against a Marlins team making their first road trip of 2026 with a pitcher whose career numbers raise concerns."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
57%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
NYY
Edge: -9.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
37%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
NYY -1.5
Edge: -10.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
over under
68%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 9.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +165 | -200 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 7.5 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -130 (-1.5) | +110 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +231 | -260 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -130 (-1.5) | +110 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +170 | -215 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 7.5 (O -103/U -122) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -139 (-1.5) | +112 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +174 | -200 | |
| BetUS | over under | 7.0 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -135 (-1.5) | +115 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +163 | -198 | |
| Bovada | over under | 7.0 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -135 (-1.5) | +115 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +228 | -285 | |
| Caesars | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -135 (-1.5) | +115 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +229 | -286 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 8.0 (O -118/U -102) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -141 (-1.5) | +117 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +225 | -275 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.5 (O 100/U -122) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +105 (-1.5) | -126 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +220 | -275 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +110 (-1.5) | -130 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +231 | -260 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -113/U -102) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -128 (-1.5) | +113 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +175 | -208 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 7.5 (O 100/U -122) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -135 (-1.5) | +111 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.