Back to Schedule
Final 7-1
Citi Field
ARI
Arizona Diamondbacks
Eduardo Rodriguez
7
@
NYM
New York Mets
Nolan McLean
1
2026-04-09 · 23:10 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
2 of 3 agree (home)
run line
All 3 models agree (home)
over under
All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
43%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -22.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Nolan McLean's elite strikeout rate and NYM's dominant team pitching staff heavily favor the Mets against a struggling Arizona offense that is 0-4 on the road."
run line
34%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -11.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Nolan McLean's elite strikeout rate and NYM's dominant team pitching staff heavily favor the Mets against a struggling Arizona offense that is 0-4 on the road."
over under
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Nolan McLean's elite strikeout rate and NYM's dominant team pitching staff heavily favor the Mets against a struggling Arizona offense that is 0-4 on the road."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
50%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -15.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"NYM's elite pitching (2.54 team ERA, McLean 10.69 K/9) combined with ARI's 0-4 away record creates a dominant matchup for the home team."
run line
39%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -6.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"NYM's elite pitching (2.54 team ERA, McLean 10.69 K/9) combined with ARI's 0-4 away record creates a dominant matchup for the home team."
over under
68%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"NYM's elite pitching (2.54 team ERA, McLean 10.69 K/9) combined with ARI's 0-4 away record creates a dominant matchup for the home team."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
43%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
ARI
Edge: +4.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
39%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
NYM -1.5
Edge: -6.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
56%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +150 | -185 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 6.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -150 (-1.5) | +125 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +157 | -174 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 6.5 (O -116/U -104) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -148 (-1.5) | +128 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +148 | -186 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 6.5 (O -120/U -104) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -175 (-1.5) | +135 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +154 | -175 | |
| BetUS | over under | 6.5 (O -125/U 105) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -150 (-1.5) | +130 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +149 | -181 | |
| Bovada | over under | 6.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -160 (-1.5) | +135 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +158 | -190 | |
| Caesars | over under | 6.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -155 (-1.5) | +130 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +153 | -186 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 6.5 (O -118/U -102) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -156 (-1.5) | +129 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +160 | -190 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 6.5 (O -120/U -102) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -144 (-1.5) | +120 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +150 | -180 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 6.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -155 (-1.5) | +130 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +157 | -174 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 6.5 (O -114/U -101) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -147 (-1.5) | +130 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +153 | -182 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 6.5 (O -116/U -105) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -150 (-1.5) | +123 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.