Back to Schedule
Final 1-2
Progressive Field
KCR
Kansas City Royals
Noah Cameron
1
@
CLE
Cleveland Guardians
Gavin Williams
2
2026-04-07 · 22:10 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
2 of 3 agree (home)
run line
2 of 3 agree (home)
over under
All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
41%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -13.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Gavin Williams' elite strikeout rate (12.75 K/9) and Cleveland's strong team pitching combined with both offenses' struggles makes this a prime low-scoring game under the 7.0 total."
run line
27%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -42.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Gavin Williams' elite strikeout rate (12.75 K/9) and Cleveland's strong team pitching combined with both offenses' struggles makes this a prime low-scoring game under the 7.0 total."
over under
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.0
Edge: -13.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Gavin Williams' elite strikeout rate (12.75 K/9) and Cleveland's strong team pitching combined with both offenses' struggles makes this a prime low-scoring game under the 7.0 total."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -12.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Cleveland's significantly better pitching staff and home field advantage overcome Kansas City's slight moneyline edge in a low-scoring contest."
run line
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -27.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Cleveland's significantly better pitching staff and home field advantage overcome Kansas City's slight moneyline edge in a low-scoring contest."
over under
64%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.0
Edge: +10.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Cleveland's significantly better pitching staff and home field advantage overcome Kansas City's slight moneyline edge in a low-scoring contest."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
KCR
Edge: -6.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
KCR +1.5
Edge: +6.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
54%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Edge: +0.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +105 | -125 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 6.0 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +185 (+1.5) | -250 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +111 | -122 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 6.0 (O -107/U -113) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -219 (-1.5) | +186 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -104 | -121 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 6.5 (O -103/U -122) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | +180 (+1.5) | -240 (-1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +107 | -117 | |
| BetUS | over under | 6.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -215 (-1.5) | +184 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +104 | -124 | |
| Bovada | over under | 6.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -230 (-1.5) | +190 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +105 | -125 | |
| Caesars | over under | 6.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -220 (-1.5) | +180 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +104 | -126 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 6.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +179 (+1.5) | -219 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +100 | -118 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 6.5 (O 100/U -122) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +184 (+1.5) | -225 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +105 | -125 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 6.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -235 (-1.5) | +190 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +111 | -122 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 6.0 (O -104/U -110) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -217 (-1.5) | +188 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +104 | -122 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 6.0 (O -119/U -102) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -222 (-1.5) | +177 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.