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Final 5-4
PNC Park
WSN
Washington Nationals
PJ Poulin
5
@
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Mitch Keller
4
2026-04-14 · 22:40 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 3 models agree (home)
run line
All 3 models agree (home)
over under
All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
41%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -23.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"The massive pitching disparity between Mitch Keller (1.50 ERA in 2026) and Miles Mikolas (14.46 ERA in 2026) makes this a strong home team lean at PNC Park."
run line
31%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -15.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"The massive pitching disparity between Mitch Keller (1.50 ERA in 2026) and Miles Mikolas (14.46 ERA in 2026) makes this a strong home team lean at PNC Park."
over under
47%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"The massive pitching disparity between Mitch Keller (1.50 ERA in 2026) and Miles Mikolas (14.46 ERA in 2026) makes this a strong home team lean at PNC Park."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
37%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -27.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Mitch Keller's exceptional 1.50 ERA and elite control versus Miles Mikolas's 14.46 ERA creates a massive pitching advantage for Pittsburgh at home."
run line
25%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -21.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Mitch Keller's exceptional 1.50 ERA and elite control versus Miles Mikolas's 14.46 ERA creates a massive pitching advantage for Pittsburgh at home."
over under
57%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Mitch Keller's exceptional 1.50 ERA and elite control versus Miles Mikolas's 14.46 ERA creates a massive pitching advantage for Pittsburgh at home."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
37%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PIT
Edge: -27.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
36%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PIT -1.5
Edge: -10.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
46%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 10.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +154 | -190 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 9.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -130 (-1.5) | +110 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +160 | -177 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 9.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -125 (-1.5) | +105 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +155 | -195 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 9.5 (O -117/U -107) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -136 (-1.5) | +108 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +158 | -180 | |
| BetUS | over under | 9.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -125 (-1.5) | +105 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +156 | -190 | |
| Bovada | over under | 9.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -125 (-1.5) | +105 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +158 | -190 | |
| Caesars | over under | 9.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -125 (-1.5) | +105 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +157 | -192 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 9.5 (O -118/U -102) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -121 (-1.5) | +100 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +154 | -184 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 9.5 (O -118/U -104) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -137 (-1.5) | +114 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +155 | -190 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 9.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -140 (-1.5) | +115 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +160 | -177 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 9.5 (O -118/U 103) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -122 (-1.5) | +108 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +159 | -189 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 9.5 (O -118/U -103) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -125 (-1.5) | +102 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.