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Final 1-0
Progressive Field
CHC
Chicago Cubs
Edward Cabrera
1
@
CLE
Cleveland Guardians
Slade Cecconi
0
2026-04-05 · 17:40 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
1 of 2 agree (home)
run line
All 2 models agree (home)
over under
All 2 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CLE
Edge: -5.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Parker Messick's exceptional command (0.0 BB/9 this season, 1.19 career) gives Cleveland a decisive pitching edge over Edward Cabrera, whose career 4.47 BB/9 rate suggests he is due for regression after a small-sample strong start."
run line
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CLE -1.5
Edge: -20.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Parker Messick's exceptional command (0.0 BB/9 this season, 1.19 career) gives Cleveland a decisive pitching edge over Edward Cabrera, whose career 4.47 BB/9 rate suggests he is due for regression after a small-sample strong start."
over under
31%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Parker Messick's exceptional command (0.0 BB/9 this season, 1.19 career) gives Cleveland a decisive pitching edge over Edward Cabrera, whose career 4.47 BB/9 rate suggests he is due for regression after a small-sample strong start."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
49%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CHC
Edge: -6.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
41%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CLE -1.5
Edge: -19.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
52%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -275 | +210 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 3.5 (O -140/U 110) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +115 (+1.5) | -150 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | -125 | +113 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 7.5 (O 102/U -122) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | +133 (+1.5) | -153 (-1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -278 | +195 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 4.0 (O -114/U -124) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | +114 (+1.5) | -159 (-1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | -127 | +116 | |
| BetUS | over under | 7.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetUS | run line | +130 (+1.5) | -150 (-1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -275 | +200 | |
| Bovada | over under | 4.0 (O -125/U -105) | ||
| Bovada | run line | +115 (+1.5) | -150 (-1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -240 | +185 | |
| Caesars | over under | 4.5 (O 115/U -145) | ||
| Caesars | run line | +125 (+1.5) | -160 (-1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -276 | +202 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 3.5 (O -135/U 104) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +113 (+1.5) | -147 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -265 | +200 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 3.5 (O -144/U 108) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +124 (+1.5) | -166 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -310 | +225 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 4.5 (O -105/U -125) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +110 (+1.5) | -145 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | -125 | +113 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 7.5 (O 105/U -120) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | +134 (+1.5) | -152 (-1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -333 | +240 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 4.0 (O -125/U -105) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -105 (+1.5) | -125 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.