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Final 9-3
Busch Stadium
BOS
Boston Red Sox
Brayan Bello
9
@
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
Andre Pallante
3
2026-04-12 · 18:15 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 3 models agree (home)
run line
All 3 models agree (home)
over under
All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
43%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -6.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Brayan Bello's disastrous 2026 start (9.00 ERA, 2.50 WHIP) on the road against a Cardinals team playing well at home makes STL the clear favorite."
run line
29%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -33.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Brayan Bello's disastrous 2026 start (9.00 ERA, 2.50 WHIP) on the road against a Cardinals team playing well at home makes STL the clear favorite."
over under
52%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Brayan Bello's disastrous 2026 start (9.00 ERA, 2.50 WHIP) on the road against a Cardinals team playing well at home makes STL the clear favorite."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
41%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -8.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Massive pitching mismatch with Pallante's dominant 1.8 ERA vs Bello's struggling 9.0 ERA provides decisive edge for STL at home."
run line
20%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -42.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Massive pitching mismatch with Pallante's dominant 1.8 ERA vs Bello's struggling 9.0 ERA provides decisive edge for STL at home."
over under
51%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Massive pitching mismatch with Pallante's dominant 1.8 ERA vs Bello's struggling 9.0 ERA provides decisive edge for STL at home."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
45%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
STL
Edge: -4.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
41%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
STL -1.5
Edge: -21.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
41%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -125 | +105 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 9.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +135 (+1.5) | -160 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | -121 | +110 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 9.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | +133 (+1.5) | -153 (-1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -129 | +104 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 9.0 (O -103/U -122) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | +130 (+1.5) | -162 (-1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | -120 | +109 | |
| BetUS | over under | 9.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetUS | run line | +135 (+1.5) | -155 (-1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -125 | +105 | |
| Bovada | over under | 9.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Bovada | run line | +130 (+1.5) | -150 (-1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -125 | +105 | |
| Caesars | over under | 9.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Caesars | run line | +130 (+1.5) | -155 (-1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -126 | +104 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 9.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +129 (+1.5) | -156 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -122 | +104 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.5 (O -124/U 102) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +136 (+1.5) | -164 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -125 | +105 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 9.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +130 (+1.5) | -155 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | -121 | +110 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 9.0 (O -107/U -107) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | +134 (+1.5) | -152 (-1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -127 | +108 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 9.0 (O -110/U -111) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +124 (+1.5) | -152 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.