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Final 4-6
Tropicana Field
CHC
Chicago Cubs
Jameson Taillon
4
@
TBR
Tampa Bay Rays
Shane McClanahan
6
2026-04-06 · 20:10 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 2 models agree (home)
run line
1 of 2 agree (away)
over under
All 2 models agree (over)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -54.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Tampa Bay's offensive advantage (.736 OPS, 5.12 R/G) gives them a slight edge at home, but their poor pitching (5.27 ERA) keeps this game very competitive with no pitcher matchup data available."
run line
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -33.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Tampa Bay's offensive advantage (.736 OPS, 5.12 R/G) gives them a slight edge at home, but their poor pitching (5.27 ERA) keeps this game very competitive with no pitcher matchup data available."
over under
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Tampa Bay's offensive advantage (.736 OPS, 5.12 R/G) gives them a slight edge at home, but their poor pitching (5.27 ERA) keeps this game very competitive with no pitcher matchup data available."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
TBR
Edge: -54.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
43%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
TBR -1.5
Edge: +7.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
over under
58%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 9.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +1100 | -3000 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 9.5 (O -165/U 130) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +155 (-2.5) | -200 (+2.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +107 | -118 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -200 (-1.5) | +174 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -105 | -122 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 10.0 (O -112/U -125) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | +140 (-2.5) | -200 (+2.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +109 | -119 | |
| BetUS | over under | 7.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -195 (-1.5) | +168 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +900 | -2000 | |
| Bovada | over under | 10.0 (O 100/U -130) | ||
| Bovada | run line | +140 (-2.5) | -185 (+2.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +110 | -130 | |
| Caesars | over under | 7.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -178 (-1.5) | +150 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +109 | -131 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 7.5 (O -112/U -108) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -168 (-1.5) | +139 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +118 | -138 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 7.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -196 (-1.5) | +162 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +1300 | -3000 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 7.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -200 (-1.5) | +165 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +107 | -118 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -118/U 103) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -200 (-1.5) | +175 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +300 | -455 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 9.0 (O 105/U -143) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -250 (-1.5) | +180 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.