Back to Schedule
Final 2-6
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
SFG
San Francisco Giants
Adrian Houser
2
@
BAL
Baltimore Orioles
Cade Povich
6
2026-04-12 · 17:35 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
2 of 3 agree (home)
run line
2 of 3 agree (away)
over under
All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -17.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Cade Povich's extremely high walk rate (5.19 BB/9) is the biggest wildcard — if he struggles with control early, SFG could capitalize despite their anemic offense."
run line
34%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -33.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Cade Povich's extremely high walk rate (5.19 BB/9) is the biggest wildcard — if he struggles with control early, SFG could capitalize despite their anemic offense."
over under
52%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Cade Povich's extremely high walk rate (5.19 BB/9) is the biggest wildcard — if he struggles with control early, SFG could capitalize despite their anemic offense."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
48%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -0.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"SF's superior away record (3-1) combined with BAL's weak home record (3-4) gives the visiting Giants slight edge despite comparable offensive struggles."
run line
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -25.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"SF's superior away record (3-1) combined with BAL's weak home record (3-4) gives the visiting Giants slight edge despite comparable offensive struggles."
over under
50%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"SF's superior away record (3-1) combined with BAL's weak home record (3-4) gives the visiting Giants slight edge despite comparable offensive struggles."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
59%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
BAL
Edge: +3.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
60%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
BAL -1.5
Edge: +22.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
over under
49%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +100 | -120 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +165 (+1.5) | -200 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +110 | -121 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +165 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +110 | -136 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.5 (O -109/U -114) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -205 (-1.5) | +160 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +108 | -118 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +164 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +104 | -124 | |
| Bovada | over under | 8.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -200 (-1.5) | +170 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +100 | -120 | |
| Caesars | over under | 8.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -205 (-1.5) | +170 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +102 | -122 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 8.5 (O -112/U -108) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +157 (+1.5) | -192 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +106 | -124 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.5 (O -114/U -106) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -205 (-1.5) | +168 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +100 | -120 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -195 (-1.5) | +160 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +111 | -122 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -107/U -107) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +166 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +103 | -120 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -109/U -112) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -212 (-1.5) | +169 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.