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Scheduled Comerica Park
KCR
Kansas City Royals
Seth Lugo
0
@
DET
Detroit Tigers
Jack Flaherty
0
2026-04-15 · 22:40 UTC

Predictions

Cross-Model Agreement

moneyline All 3 models agree (away)
run line All 3 models agree (away)
over under 2 of 3 agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet) LLM
moneyline 45% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -2.2% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

"Jack Flaherty's historically poor walk rate (8.89 BB/9) this season creates a massive advantage for Kansas City, while Seth Lugo's elite command (1.59 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) makes this a lopsided pitching matchup favoring the Royals."

run line 38% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -28.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

"Jack Flaherty's historically poor walk rate (8.89 BB/9) this season creates a massive advantage for Kansas City, while Seth Lugo's elite command (1.59 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) makes this a lopsided pitching matchup favoring the Royals."

over under 34% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

"Jack Flaherty's historically poor walk rate (8.89 BB/9) this season creates a massive advantage for Kansas City, while Seth Lugo's elite command (1.59 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) makes this a lopsided pitching matchup favoring the Royals."

Haiku Current Series Record LLM
moneyline 40% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -7.2% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

"Seth Lugo's exceptional pitching (1.59 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) presents overwhelming advantage over Jack Flaherty's struggling performance (7.56 ERA, 1.8 WHIP)."

run line 31% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -35.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

"Seth Lugo's exceptional pitching (1.59 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) presents overwhelming advantage over Jack Flaherty's struggling performance (7.56 ERA, 1.8 WHIP)."

over under 29% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

"Seth Lugo's exceptional pitching (1.59 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) presents overwhelming advantage over Jack Flaherty's struggling performance (7.56 ERA, 1.8 WHIP)."

ML Baseline ML
moneyline 46% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
KCR
Edge: -1.2% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
run line 37% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
KCR +1.5
Edge: -29.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
over under 38% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

Odds Comparison
Sportsbook Type Away Home Total
BetMGM moneyline +105 -125
BetMGM over under 8.5 (O -118/U -102)
BetMGM run line -220 (-1.5) +165 (+1.5)
BetOnline.ag moneyline +111 -122
BetOnline.ag over under 8.5 (O -117/U -103)
BetOnline.ag run line -188 (-1.5) +164 (+1.5)
BetRivers moneyline +110 -136
BetRivers over under 8.5 (O -114/U -109)
BetRivers run line -205 (-1.5) +163 (+1.5)
BetUS moneyline +113 -124
BetUS over under 8.5 (O -115/U -105)
BetUS run line -190 (-1.5) +164 (+1.5)
Bovada moneyline +110 -132
Bovada over under 8.5 (O -120/U 100)
Bovada run line -185 (-1.5) +160 (+1.5)
Caesars moneyline +105 -125
Caesars over under 8.5 (O -115/U -105)
Caesars run line -195 (-1.5) +162 (+1.5)
DraftKings moneyline +109 -131
DraftKings over under 8.5 (O -115/U -105)
DraftKings run line -199 (-1.5) +163 (+1.5)
FanDuel moneyline +112 -132
FanDuel over under 8.5 (O -115/U -105)
FanDuel run line -194 (-1.5) +160 (+1.5)
Fanatics moneyline +110 -130
Fanatics over under 8.5 (O -115/U -105)
Fanatics run line -180 (-1.5) +150 (+1.5)
LowVig.ag moneyline +111 -122
LowVig.ag over under 8.5 (O -115/U 100)
LowVig.ag run line -188 (-1.5) +165 (+1.5)
MyBookie.ag moneyline +110 -130
MyBookie.ag over under 8.5 (O -116/U -105)
MyBookie.ag run line -185 (-1.5) +150 (+1.5)

Team Stats

Stats not yet available.