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Final 3-1 American Family Field
WSN
Washington Nationals
Foster Griffin
3
@
MIL
Milwaukee Brewers
Kyle Harrison
1
2026-04-11 · 23:10 UTC

Predictions

Cross-Model Agreement

moneyline All 3 models agree (home)
run line All 3 models agree (home)
over under All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet) LLM
moneyline 47% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -17.9% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Kyle Harrison's elite 14.4 K/9 and 1.80 ERA in 2026 gives Milwaukee a significant pitching edge over Washington's struggling offense and Foster Griffin's unproven track record."

run line 26% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -19.1% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Kyle Harrison's elite 14.4 K/9 and 1.80 ERA in 2026 gives Milwaukee a significant pitching edge over Washington's struggling offense and Foster Griffin's unproven track record."

over under 37% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 9.0
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"Kyle Harrison's elite 14.4 K/9 and 1.80 ERA in 2026 gives Milwaukee a significant pitching edge over Washington's struggling offense and Foster Griffin's unproven track record."

Haiku Current Series Record LLM
moneyline 41% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -23.9% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Milwaukee's dominant home record (5-1) combined with superior pitching (3.77 team ERA vs 6.06) and Kyle Harrison's exceptional form (1.80 ERA, 14.4 K/9) gives them a clear edge over the struggling Nationals."

run line 58% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: +13.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Milwaukee's dominant home record (5-1) combined with superior pitching (3.77 team ERA vs 6.06) and Kyle Harrison's exceptional form (1.80 ERA, 14.4 K/9) gives them a clear edge over the struggling Nationals."

over under 61% MED The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"Milwaukee's dominant home record (5-1) combined with superior pitching (3.77 team ERA vs 6.06) and Kyle Harrison's exceptional form (1.80 ERA, 14.4 K/9) gives them a clear edge over the struggling Nationals."

ML Baseline ML
moneyline 54% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
MIL
Edge: -10.9% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST
run line 33% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
MIL -1.5
Edge: -12.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST
over under 45% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 12.0
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

Odds Comparison
Sportsbook Type Away Home Total
BetMGM moneyline +154 -185
BetMGM over under 8.0 (O -110/U -110)
BetMGM run line -140 (-1.5) +118 (+1.5)
BetOnline.ag moneyline +167 -185
BetOnline.ag over under 8.0 (O -103/U -117)
BetOnline.ag run line -140 (-1.5) +120 (+1.5)
BetRivers moneyline +155 -195
BetRivers over under 8.0 (O -110/U -113)
BetRivers run line -143 (-1.5) +116 (+1.5)
BetUS moneyline +150 -170
BetUS over under 8.0 (O -115/U -105)
BetUS run line -140 (-1.5) +120 (+1.5)
Bovada moneyline +148 -180
Bovada over under 8.0 (O -110/U -110)
Bovada run line -145 (-1.5) +125 (+1.5)
Caesars moneyline +158 -190
Caesars over under 7.5 (O -110/U -110)
Caesars run line -145 (-1.5) +122 (+1.5)
DraftKings moneyline +159 -194
DraftKings over under 7.5 (O -118/U -102)
DraftKings run line -143 (-1.5) +119 (+1.5)
FanDuel moneyline +152 -180
FanDuel over under 7.5 (O -115/U -105)
FanDuel run line -150 (-1.5) +125 (+1.5)
Fanatics moneyline +150 -180
Fanatics over under 8.0 (O -105/U -115)
Fanatics run line -130 (-1.5) +110 (+1.5)
LowVig.ag moneyline +167 -185
LowVig.ag over under 8.0 (O 100/U -115)
LowVig.ag run line -138 (-1.5) +122 (+1.5)
MyBookie.ag moneyline +148 -175
MyBookie.ag over under 8.0 (O -111/U -110)
MyBookie.ag run line -147 (-1.5) +119 (+1.5)

Team Stats

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