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Final 4-5
PNC Park
BAL
Baltimore Orioles
Kyle Bradish
4
@
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Mitch Keller
5
2026-04-03 · 20:12 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
1 of 2 agree (away)
run line
All 2 models agree (away)
over under
All 2 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: +28.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Mitch Keller's elite early-season numbers are likely regression candidates given his 4.48 career ERA, making this a much closer matchup than his 2026 stats suggest."
run line
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -21.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Mitch Keller's elite early-season numbers are likely regression candidates given his 4.48 career ERA, making this a much closer matchup than his 2026 stats suggest."
over under
31%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Edge: -21.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Mitch Keller's elite early-season numbers are likely regression candidates given his 4.48 career ERA, making this a much closer matchup than his 2026 stats suggest."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
56%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PIT
Edge: -35.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
34%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
BAL +1.5
Edge: -27.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
67%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 9.0
Edge: +14.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
PUSH
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +625 | -1100 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 9.5 (O -135/U 105) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +110 (-2.5) | -140 (+2.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | -110 | +100 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | +135 (+1.5) | -155 (-1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +575 | -1250 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 10.0 (O -112/U -127) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | +104 (-2.5) | -143 (+2.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | -116 | +106 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetUS | run line | +135 (+1.5) | -155 (-1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +350 | -550 | |
| Bovada | over under | 9.5 (O -105/U -125) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -120 (-2.0) | -110 (+2.0) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -115 | -105 | |
| Caesars | over under | 8.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -160 (-3.5) | +125 (+3.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -115 | -105 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 8.5 (O -108/U -112) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +126 (-2.5) | -165 (+2.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -116 | -102 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +142 (+1.5) | -172 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -115 | -105 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +140 (+1.5) | -170 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | -110 | +100 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -102/U -113) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | +136 (+1.5) | -154 (-1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +525 | -833 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 10.5 (O -118/U -125) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +105 (-2.5) | -143 (+2.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.