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Final 4-3
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
ARI
Arizona Diamondbacks
Merrill Kelly
4
@
BAL
Baltimore Orioles
Trevor Rogers
3
2026-04-14 · 22:35 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
2 of 3 agree (home)
run line
All 3 models agree (home)
over under
All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
39%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -22.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Trevor Rogers' exceptional 2026 ERA of 1.38 gives Baltimore a clear pitching advantage against an Arizona offense batting just .223 with a .648 OPS."
run line
31%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -11.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Trevor Rogers' exceptional 2026 ERA of 1.38 gives Baltimore a clear pitching advantage against an Arizona offense batting just .223 with a .648 OPS."
over under
52%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Trevor Rogers' exceptional 2026 ERA of 1.38 gives Baltimore a clear pitching advantage against an Arizona offense batting just .223 with a .648 OPS."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
58%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -3.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Trevor Rogers' elite early-season pitching performance (1.38 ERA, 2-0) is the decisive advantage for Baltimore at home."
run line
19%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -23.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Trevor Rogers' elite early-season pitching performance (1.38 ERA, 2-0) is the decisive advantage for Baltimore at home."
over under
28%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Trevor Rogers' elite early-season pitching performance (1.38 ERA, 2-0) is the decisive advantage for Baltimore at home."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
51%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
ARI
Edge: +8.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
51%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
BAL -1.5
Edge: +8.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
51%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +135 | -160 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -160 (-1.5) | +135 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +140 | -155 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 9.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -155 (-1.5) | +135 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +125 | -157 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.5 (O -121/U -104) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -165 (-1.5) | +133 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +140 | -157 | |
| BetUS | over under | 9.0 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -155 (-1.5) | +135 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +138 | -164 | |
| Bovada | over under | 9.0 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -160 (-1.5) | +135 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +135 | -160 | |
| Caesars | over under | 9.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -160 (-1.5) | +135 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +135 | -163 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 9.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -156 (-1.5) | +129 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +128 | -152 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 9.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -156 (-1.5) | +130 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +135 | -165 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 9.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -150 (-1.5) | +125 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +140 | -155 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 9.0 (O -107/U -107) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -154 (-1.5) | +136 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +139 | -164 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -122/U -101) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -158 (-1.5) | +127 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.