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Final 4-3 Wrigley Field
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Braxton Ashcraft
4
@
CHC
Chicago Cubs
Edward Cabrera
3
2026-04-11 · 18:20 UTC

Predictions

Cross-Model Agreement

moneyline All 3 models agree (home)
run line All 3 models agree (home)
over under All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet) LLM
moneyline 45% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -14.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Edward Cabrera's exceptional early-season dominance (0.00 ERA, 0.33 WHIP) against Braxton Ashcraft's alarming walk rate (6.0 BB/9) gives the Cubs a significant pitching edge in this matchup."

run line 26% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -13.2% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Edward Cabrera's exceptional early-season dominance (0.00 ERA, 0.33 WHIP) against Braxton Ashcraft's alarming walk rate (6.0 BB/9) gives the Cubs a significant pitching edge in this matchup."

over under 37% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"Edward Cabrera's exceptional early-season dominance (0.00 ERA, 0.33 WHIP) against Braxton Ashcraft's alarming walk rate (6.0 BB/9) gives the Cubs a significant pitching edge in this matchup."

Haiku Current Series Record LLM
moneyline 58% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -1.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Edward Cabrera's dominant 0.00 ERA and elite control this season gives CHC a significant pitching edge against a Pirates team with below-average offense."

run line 52% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: +12.8% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Edward Cabrera's dominant 0.00 ERA and elite control this season gives CHC a significant pitching edge against a Pirates team with below-average offense."

over under 59% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"Edward Cabrera's dominant 0.00 ERA and elite control this season gives CHC a significant pitching edge against a Pirates team with below-average offense."

ML Baseline ML
moneyline 62% MED The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CHC
Edge: +3.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST
run line 59% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CHC -1.5
Edge: +19.8% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST
over under 52% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 9.0
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

Odds Comparison
Sportsbook Type Away Home Total
BetMGM moneyline -160 +130
BetMGM over under 6.5 (O -120/U 100)
BetMGM run line -190 (-1.5) +155 (+1.5)
BetOnline.ag moneyline +120 -132
BetOnline.ag over under 6.5 (O -114/U -106)
BetOnline.ag run line -178 (-1.5) +156 (+1.5)
BetRivers moneyline -200 +143
BetRivers over under 7.5 (O -130/U -110)
BetRivers run line -215 (-1.5) +170 (+1.5)
BetUS moneyline +126 -140
BetUS over under 6.5 (O -115/U -105)
BetUS run line -180 (-1.5) +156 (+1.5)
Bovada moneyline -145 +110
Bovada over under 7.5 (O -150/U 115)
Bovada run line -195 (-1.5) +165 (+1.5)
Caesars moneyline -160 +125
Caesars over under 6.5 (O -115/U -105)
Caesars run line -178 (-1.5) +150 (+1.5)
DraftKings moneyline +113 -136
DraftKings over under 9.5 (O 149/U -197)
DraftKings run line +431 (+1.5) -710 (-1.5)
FanDuel moneyline +108 -126
FanDuel over under 8.5 (O -114/U -114)
FanDuel run line -188 (-1.5) +155 (+1.5)
Fanatics moneyline -160 +120
Fanatics over under 6.5 (O -115/U -105)
Fanatics run line -195 (-1.5) +160 (+1.5)
LowVig.ag moneyline +120 -132
LowVig.ag over under 6.5 (O -112/U -103)
LowVig.ag run line -178 (-1.5) +157 (+1.5)
MyBookie.ag moneyline +123 -145
MyBookie.ag over under 6.5 (O -116/U -105)
MyBookie.ag run line -190 (-1.5) +154 (+1.5)

Team Stats

Stats not yet available.