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Final 3-5
Tropicana Field
NYY
New York Yankees
Luis Gil
3
@
TBR
Tampa Bay Rays
Steven Matz
5
2026-04-10 · 23:10 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
2 of 3 agree (away)
run line
2 of 3 agree (away)
over under
2 of 3 agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
45%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -9.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"The Yankees' elite pitching staff (2.47 ERA) facing a struggling Tampa Bay offense at home is the dominant factor, even with uncertainty around the NYY starting pitcher."
run line
41%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: +1.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"The Yankees' elite pitching staff (2.47 ERA) facing a struggling Tampa Bay offense at home is the dominant factor, even with uncertainty around the NYY starting pitcher."
over under
51%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"The Yankees' elite pitching staff (2.47 ERA) facing a struggling Tampa Bay offense at home is the dominant factor, even with uncertainty around the NYY starting pitcher."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
41%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -13.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Yankees' elite 2.47 team ERA combined with strong 8-3 record and 5-1 away performance significantly outmatches Tampa Bay's struggling 5-7 home team with 4.96 ERA."
run line
55%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: +15.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Yankees' elite 2.47 team ERA combined with strong 8-3 record and 5-1 away performance significantly outmatches Tampa Bay's struggling 5-7 home team with 4.96 ERA."
over under
65%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Yankees' elite 2.47 team ERA combined with strong 8-3 record and 5-1 away performance significantly outmatches Tampa Bay's struggling 5-7 home team with 4.96 ERA."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
58%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
TBR
Edge: +8.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
55%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
TBR -1.5
Edge: -8.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
over under
50%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 9.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -120 | +100 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.0 (O -118/U -102) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +140 (+1.5) | -170 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | -182 | +164 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | +149 (+1.5) | -170 (-1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -117 | -107 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.0 (O -118/U -106) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | +143 (+1.5) | -180 (-1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | -108 | -102 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.0 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetUS | run line | +148 (+1.5) | -170 (-1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -113 | -107 | |
| Bovada | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Bovada | run line | +145 (+1.5) | -170 (-1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -190 | +158 | |
| Caesars | over under | 7.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -115 (+1.5) | -105 (-1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -194 | +159 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 7.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -115 (+1.5) | -105 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -194 | +162 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 7.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -110 (+1.5) | -110 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -190 | +155 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 7.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -110 (+1.5) | -110 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | -182 | +164 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -107/U -107) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | +150 (+1.5) | -170 (-1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -115 | -102 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -114/U -108) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +146 (+1.5) | -182 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.