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Final 1-0 Citi Field
OAK
Oakland Athletics
Aaron Civale
1
@
NYM
New York Mets
Freddy Peralta
0
2026-04-12 · 17:40 UTC

Predictions

Cross-Model Agreement

moneyline All 3 models agree (home)
run line All 3 models agree (home)
over under All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet) LLM
moneyline 41% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Freddy Peralta's elite strikeout rate (11.4 K/9) against an Oakland offense with a 30.3% strikeout rate and .646 OPS is the most decisive matchup advantage in this game."

run line 27% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Freddy Peralta's elite strikeout rate (11.4 K/9) against an Oakland offense with a 30.3% strikeout rate and .646 OPS is the most decisive matchup advantage in this game."

over under 52% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"Freddy Peralta's elite strikeout rate (11.4 K/9) against an Oakland offense with a 30.3% strikeout rate and .646 OPS is the most decisive matchup advantage in this game."

Haiku Current Series Record LLM
moneyline 58% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"NYM's significant pitching advantage (3.26 ERA vs 4.38, lower WHIP) combined with OAK's anemic .23 batting average makes the home team the safer play."

run line 44% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"NYM's significant pitching advantage (3.26 ERA vs 4.38, lower WHIP) combined with OAK's anemic .23 batting average makes the home team the safer play."

over under 48% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"NYM's significant pitching advantage (3.26 ERA vs 4.38, lower WHIP) combined with OAK's anemic .23 batting average makes the home team the safer play."

ML Baseline ML
moneyline 57% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
NYM
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST
run line 42% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
NYM -1.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST
over under 43% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.0
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

Odds Comparison
Odds pending -- check back closer to game time.

Team Stats

Stats not yet available.